Dear all, colleagues, students.
Avelina has been kind enough to invite me to introduce Mercedes Montesinos
and many thanks to Avelina and all those who have bothered to come
or who have an interest in these issues.
Mercedes Montesinos is the author.
Mercedes Montesinos holds a degree in Biology from the Complutense University of Madrid
and also in Pharmacy.
Since those years we know each other
because the Bachelor of Biology and Geology, I am a geologist,
Biology and Geology degrees had just separated very recently.
Because in the past, all the professors, the great professors
geologists, and more from the Complutense University, and biologists
had actually studied natural sciences.
In other words, they were more broadly trained than they are today.
I studied botany, paleozoology and then, of course, zoology,
palaeobotany, palaeozoology, palaeontology and so on.
And Mercedes Montesinos studied Quaternary and Human Palaeontology.
In Quaternary and Human Palaeontology we organised a trip to Senegal and Mauritania
by the 1960s.
And so, one of the first intentions
was what is now called climate change,
because of course, what we did was to see the deposits in Nouakchott,
the Quaternary deposits of Nouakchott,
quite far inland from the coast of Mauritania, inland
and these deposits had already been published by 1910,
The thing is that at that time, Mauritania was called Senegal.
and Morocco was what was called Mauritania.
In other words, the geographical locations have also changed in terms of the old publications.
Another of the things we were looking at was the IFAN collection,
the French Institute of Black Africa.
It is called French, then foundational, because they kept the acronym by changing an initial.
I mean that already many years ago, there was already an intention to investigate
the issues that were at the root of the migration of African fauna,
even as far as the Mediterranean.
In the last interglacial, the Mediterranean deposits in 1914, they were called "the layers with strombus"
and the strombus live, as a genus, in all warm seas
and as a species, in particular the strombus bubonius, in the Gulf of Guinea;
having its southern boundary in Angola and its northern boundary in Dakar and the Cape Verde Islands.
After that, Mercedes Montesinos took competitive examinations.
So you have done something that I am totally against,
and against the World Bank and all its cronies,
which was work, work, work and never stop working.
She was then reclaimed from the nuclear energy board by the Ministry of Environment
and it is there that she has tried to fight for politicians of all stripes to
who have been her bosses, will not go far wrong.
She has been a great contributor to all of this and has held positions such as
Area Coordinator of the Office of the Secretary General for the Prevention of Pollution and Climate Change
Coordinator of the Cabinet Area of the Secretary of State for Climate Change,
Coordinator of the Cabinet Area of the Secretariat of State for the Environment,
and Support Unit for the Directorate General for Environmental Quality and Assessment.
She had something inside her that told her, I could not do my doctoral thesis at the time.
In fact, she had it made many years ago, but the circumstances of work and service
had prevented her from doing it, and now she chose us to do her doctoral thesis.
And then she is the one who is going to talk to them about the doctoral thesis.
Thank you all very much.
Sorry. I remembered seeing Avelina, who tells me that palaeontology is very important,
because nobody has ever given importance to palaeontology here, not even politicians,
despite the fact that famous people like Lyell have come to study and publish the deposits of La Palma,
but here, the administrations have ignored the whole paleontological question
of the whole issue of fossils
and also the university itself to a certain extent.
So what I wanted to tell you about palaeontology is that it gives a new vision
to the people who know palaeontology.
I'll give just two examples, to see if I can remember one of them, because everyone says so.
Who came first, the chicken or the egg?
You have no idea about palaeontology.
Because chickens are birds, birds lay eggs,
the ancestors of birds are reptiles, reptiles lay eggs,
Therefore, the egg always comes before the chicken, and those who do not know this are fools.
That on the one hand, and on the other hand, for example,
the other day I saw a picture on the internet with a human of ours who had 8 toes on each hand and foot.
I would have liked to ask you what you think about it.
Quite simply, 350 million years ago, the first fish that emerged from the sea
had 8 protofingers, and then, in a few million years, from 8 to 5;
which is the pentadactyl limb of the terrestrial tetrapods.
Land tetrapods, all whales and all snakes even if they have no legs, and all birds.
So this is the chiridium, the chiridium. The hand.
Te quiero agarrar (I want to grab you).
And agarrar also comes from garra.
So four-legged digestive tracts, that is what we are.
Always eating, and the opposite.
Thank you very much Joaquín for the presentation.
As you have seen, has no merit after getting to know us
since I was 17 years old and I am 68.
I do thank him for the words he addressed to me, because he is right,
I mean, I'm a freak, I've been in administration for 44 years,
and as a general manager I had, he always told me:
"May God pay you, because we have already seen what the administration pays those of us who are here," he said.
and what the administration will pay you tomorrow if you are not civil servants.
They are taking away our privileges, not only our extra pay, but also our muscosos days,
that we have earned for being grey-haired.
And that in reality, those days were given to us because they could not pay us money.
So, it is clear that I had 15 moscosos and now they have left me with 3,
like many of us here.
So when I got in touch with Avelina and she had told me that she had created this forum
I loved the idea of a knowledge-sharing, science promotion cycle,
because it is obvious: white hair, 68 years old...
and I became enthusiastic about the idea of doing the thesis
when I was lucky enough to fall into the good hands of Antonio, Per, Álex, Joaquín and Tachi;
who encouraged me to start from the beginning,
because logically when I did that thesis at the age of 24 it never occurred to me,
because I couldn't continue with my work, so I had to validate the subjects
and so I had to start from the beginning.
I was lucky enough to meet people like Pedro Sosa, Luis Felipe, mi Señora de los Rodolfitos.
In other words, I had my work cut out for me, well worked out.
But I have not regretted it, because for the last 24 years that I have been in the administration, I have not regretted it,
I started by doing reports, advising the people next door,
but logically you are then sent to management,
that is, you have to manage; and you like it, but you don't like it
and fell into the hands of the nuclear energy board,
who gave me a very good training, because the military was there when I got there.
We were all squared,
but they teach you to think, believe it or not, they teach you to think and to commit yourself to the work.
When we entered Europe and the first meeting had to be held, Spain was the presidency,
I was taken from the board to go and lend a hand to the ministry,
because at that time the Environment was in the Ministry of Public Works, in other words, civil engineers.
Talk to road engineers about environmental impact, about the things that had to be done.
What I mean is that we have had, in the course of time, to adapt to the changing times
and when I saw the possibility, which I, moreover, had studied in the field of radioecology
the possibility of leaving for a while, then in the evenings when I got home,
to devote myself to what I liked, which was research.
Even if it was on paper, and to be able to collaborate with this university, I was delighted.
When Avelina said "could you give pep talks to the kids?"
My presence alone, in other words, it is clear that we must never give up.
There are possibilities for everyone, and it all depends on the effort you put into it.
So I have divided the talk into two parts,
because of course what I have done in the thesis, under the guidance of Antonio and Joaquín,
is to study two fossils, two little things that were there and what this leads us to.
I am going to tell you what happened here in the Canary Islands,
that there has been climate change.
I'm going to tell you a little bit about what is known about the progress of climate change, I'm going to start there.
I always say one thing when I teach a class about the environment that relates to what Joaquín said.
The present we are living in has developed out of the past,
but our future depends on what we do in the present.
And it is exactly the same for the issue of climate change and the environment.
I always tell one thing and that is that when I am the environment class.
One thing is very clear.
When Europe and our country suffered two great wars in the 20th century.
Then what happened?
Politicians, no matter who they were, found themselves with unstructured countries,
families with generations missing, no jobs and destroyed cities.
And the first thing they had to do in their own country was to rebuild the country,
create jobs and settle the population.
So what was the problem?
Nobody cared about the environment.
From there came the industrial boom and from there came the fact that little by little we are destroying everything.
Then, at the Stockholm Conference in 1972, the alarm was sounded,
the Bruntland Report and the Club of Rome begins,
and then we started to deal with the concept of sustainable development.
But does that lead us to what we are really aware of? Well, we don't know.
Is climate change a new thing? No.
Earth is a living planet. The Earth defends itself. There we have all the glaciations.
We all know that climate change has always existed and will always exist.
Now, what needs to be seen is how far the andropogenic influence takes us.
So I have divided the talk into two parts.
What is climate change and what I have told you about my thesis I will skip over.
This is our planet, which looks like this from the moon.
We look like somebody, don't we? But no, we don't look like anybody.
But what is to be done?
Think globally and act locally.
That our passage through the galaxy is already. As long as we live; we are no one.
So what do we know about climate change?
What we know is that humankind as a whole has increased emissions
and concentrations of greenhouse gases that have always existed in the atmosphere.
But if this increase is not slowed down, the intensification of the greenhouse effect will
could lead to unnatural climate change.
Irreversible in the short term and harmful to human life and nature.
Human life as we know it now.
What are the causes of climate change?
We have external causes and internal causes.
As for external causes,
we have variations in the orbital parameters; the Milankovitch cycles.
Some scientifics agree with, some don't.
Variations in solar irradiance; solar cycles.
And then meteorites due to the presence of interstellar dust.
Then we have internal ones, such as volcanism; aerosols of various origins,
that are natural, non-volcanic or produced by human activity;
changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases, which can be of natural or human origin;
and changes in the land surface; desertification, deforestation, albedo changes...
Much of this is the cause and we humans are to blame.
This is an example of the Milankovitch orbital parameters,
and this would be the radiative forcings. What solar radiation we receive,
which is reflected and which is the terrestrial radiation emitted.
What are the common greenhouse gases, what are the origins?
And their contribution to global warming?
There are basically 4 types of gases:
CO2, its main sources are the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation
and it contributes to global warming by 55%;
chlorofluorocarbons and related gases, which come from various industrial uses:
refrigerators, foam sprays, solvents and then extensive agriculture,
which contribute 24%;
we have methane, coal mining, gas leakage, deforestation,
plant and soil respiration due to global warming, and enteric fermentation,
is 15%;
and nitrous oxide, i.e. agriculture, intensive forestry, biomass burning,
the use of fertilisers, the burning of fossil fuels; that is the least affected.
So where does the CO2 come from and where does it go?
In gigatonnes per carbon per year, we see who produces it.
Fossil fuels and cement we have 5.5 tonnes,
tropical deforestation 1.6
Total anthropogenic emissions 7.1, but where do they end up?
3.3 accumulates in the atmosphere, 2.0 or so is fixed in oceanic systems,
and in the fixation of ground systems a 1.8.
This is a clear example of what civilisation is leading us to, the light pollution.
Here we can find out which countries contribute most to global warming.
It is clear that it is the developed countries that contribute the most: The United States 30.3%,
the European Union 27%; already all the countries that are not underdeveloped this is what we contribute
to global warming.
What is expected to happen with global warming?
There will be temperature differences, sea level rise, rainfall variation.
What is this going to do to us?
Health impacts, agricultural impacts, impacts on forestry, impacts on water resources
and in everything else, in the forests and so on.
So from the point of view that we tried to capture in the thesis that I did.
What is really going to change the sea level?
Three main causes:
Thermal expansion is one of the main contributors to historical sea level changes.
It is expected to contribute the largest component to sea level rise over the next 100 years.
Deep ocean temperatures change very slowly,
thermal expansion would therefore continue for many centuries.
The geographic distribution of sea level change is the result of
of geographical variation in thermal expansion, changes in salinity,
of winds and ocean circulation.
It will also modify the sea level when the oceanic water mass rises or not.
So what are the causes of sea level rise?
It will be a function of the source and the changes observed.
In this transparency we see the observed changes in the mean surface temperature,
in mean sea level rise according to tide gauge data shown in blue.
And on satellite, this is data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
and the decrease in snow cover in the northern hemisphere during the period March-April,
The same period, March-April, is always taken.
If we look at what is the comparison of the observed data,
we have the changes all over the continents as you can see,
the most certainly in the United States and Europe,
then what would be the global change below, the global change of the Earth and the global change of the ocean.
Normally this has been done with simulation, with mathematical models, taking some data,
we see that if there were no anthropogenic activity, the normal line would be blue,
but if we take anthropogenic action into account we would be shooting ourselves in the foot.
As you can see over the years, the models predict that there is going to be a lot of variation.
So what are the climate changes that are predicted for the future?
In the future, the average global temperature is expected to increase from 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius;
The Northern Hemisphere's emerged surface area will decrease and Antarctic Ocean ice will increase;
sea level to rise from 9 to 88 centimetres;
and other changes and an increase in extreme weather events.
We have always said that there was seasonality change, but abrupt temperature changes,
I mean, when I was a child, in Madrid there were 4 seasons: spring, summer, autumn, winter;
now we move from the bikini to the fur coat,
But not only that, it happens for weeks at a time.
For example, last week in Madrid we had highs of twenty-something degrees,
And well, yesterday I went out there at 2 degrees.
It's those abrupt changes in temperature.
The Canary Islands have always had a privileged climate.
Do you want to tell me what we are doing at Gando airport at 19:00 at almost 30 degrees?
It's not normal, we haven't even had it in August.
So perhaps climate change will lead to these extreme weather events
this is all long-term, but there is already some representation of it.
So to predict the change in future climate scenarios,
the people at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, that there are people who are advocating
the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other detractors,
because, of course, the expert who was not included got angry, and as he got angry
then all is disproved, everything in this life is the same,
that when we are left out of something the way is to lash out at the insider.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has a number of scenarios.
We have a society in which there are more and more of us on Earth,
we have to take into account demographics, societal development and energy consumption.
Taking these factors into account, we know the emissions we produce.
We have carbon, it goes into the carbon cycle, it gives us a series of concentrations.
Then we have with a planetary radiation balance, we arrive at radiative forcings.
A climate system is modelled, the future climate is produced.
We then look at the patterns of impacts.
With this modelling and this background, the Intergovernmental Panel gives us scenarios.
Scenarios that would range from a society,
we have to say; gentlemen, there is climate change, we stand up, we think about what we do,
What model of life do I want, what do I understand by quality of life, what do I understand by social welfare?
Because the welfare state that we had now has led us to have 5 million
so it must not have been very good.
5 million unemployed. Welfare. Quality of life.
Based on these scenarios they envisage,
with the transparency I explained earlier,
there is a best estimate of temperature change, each society chooses how it wants to live.
Based on these scenarios, we know what the issue will be,
how much it is going to affect the temperature, and then we have the curves
of how the sea level is rising according to the scenario we have selected
Starting from my thesis and trying not to be too boring, but I am going to be.
But have the Canary Islands undergone climatic changes? Of course they have.
How can they not undergo climate change, the planet Earth has undergone climate change
since life began on planet Earth.
We have chosen 2 fossils for my thesis and to see exactly what happened.
One was the Saccostrea cucullata of Born ans the other one the Harpa rosea of Lamerck.
These come mainly from the seas of the Gulf of Guinea,
and here we have found fossils in marine deposits in the Canary Islands.
It then allows us to compare the 2 interglacials where they were alive with the current one.
We have chosen these species because they are palaeoindicators.
We do it with remote sensing because it gives an idea of the temperatures we can have.
We know that probably the last interglacial and the penultimate major interglacial
are the most similar to the present day and that the Canary Islands have these deposits that are fossilised here,
but a little bit further away, like the Cape Verde Islands, they are alive.
Because they are alive and kicking.
Then because these 2 species are each attributable to an interglacial period
Then because these 2 species are each attributable to an interglacial period.
we have the possibility of inferring from the conditions it requires for its existence
those of the Pleistocene and for that we have used remote sensing.
We have realised the geographical context ranges from the Canary Islands to Angola,
focusing primarily on the Gulf of Guinea.
This is the geology of the Canary Islands.
Most probably the Canary Islands arise from a slow movement over a hot spot.
active for more than 20 million years.
Sedimentary records showing climatic changes over the last 5 million years.
Then there are warm phases in which marine terraces are interspersed with palaeosoils.
This indicates an arid climate with wet intervals.
And then there are arid episodes because there are aeolian and calcrete deposits.
There are some marine deposits that contain the Saccostrea cucullataand the Harpa rosea
which now inhabit the west coast of Africa and the islands of the eastern Atlantic.
TheSaccostrea cucullata has been found alive, i.e. by a few specimens
and described in a wealth of literature, alive from Angola to Ghana and on Ascension Island.
and fossils are in the Canary Islands in Gran Canaria on the coast of Arucas, in La Granja del Cabildo
and in Lanzarote at the Piedra Alta site.
These are the deposits, I'm going to put them quickly, if anyone is interested we can analyse them.
This is the site of Cardones, in Gran Canaria,
which has all the characteristics of the geological survey and this is the Lanzarote site.
Here you can see how the different camps were.
Here it is important to see that there we had a Saccostrea cucullata
that they couldn't take out because it broke and stayed there.
This is the Saccostrea cucullata of the Barranco de Cardones.
We know that it is a Saccostrea cucullata because unlike the others,
is characterised by the heel or rostrum forming a right angle with the rest of the shell
and that is a typical feature of the Saccostrea.
Regarding the Harpa, we have them alive from Angola to Senegal and from Ascension Island to Cape Verde.
We have fossils in Gran Canaria, Fuerteventura and Lanzarote.
In Gran Canaria it is in Arenales de Santa Catalina, which no longer exists because it has been built on top of it.
The first place they appeared was in the Luengo tunnel, which means that they are underneath
of the abandoned stadium, and they appeared the last time, afterwards,
when the maternal car parks were built, because the island hospital was there.
Both times, the highest levels were called upon,
to leave a part that could be visited at a congress or by people interested in deposits,
deposits which were first described in 1865 by Lyell
in the sixth edition of his books, Elements of Geology.
And there is no answer, the first time it was the Socialist Party that was responsible,
and the second time it was the Popular Party, that is, it is of no interest here at all.
Nothing that is truly Canarian and cultural other than an isa.
Then in Fuerteventura it is in Matas Blancas and Las Playitas
and in Lanzarote in Matagorda or Guasimeta, where the site has also disappeared
And in Punta Penedo.
Well, here you have what Joaquín says, how the cut is and everything that has been built on top of it.
And then we have Matas Blancas and Las Playitas,
usually the one who has collected the specimens is Doctor Meco.
This is Fuerteventura and the Guasimeta has also disappeared.
If we look at the comparison of Canary Island fossils of Harpa rosea with current specimens,
there is no doubt that these are the specimens.
What has been the evolution of bioclimatic conditions in the Canary Islands since 240,000 years ago?
These transparecies are thanks to the kindness of my thesis director, Joaquin
who has them published and I have appropriated them.
As we can see, the sea level during the Upper Pleistocene, there was a rise in sea level
of 12 metres above sea level in Las Palmas.
There were paleosoils and marine deposits interspersed with dunes.
From the age of the Teno lava flow we knew that there were lateritic paleosols with altered pyroclasts,
indicates that there was high humidity and very high temperature, which allowed the vegetation to develop.
And there was a spring effect of the inferred terminations and paleotemperatures
of the Senegalese fauna present in the Canary Islands and the Mediterranean.
These are oceanic conditions that we are seeing being reproduced today.
Below are the heights of the sea levels it had suffered.
Climate variations over the last 420,000 years,
The marine isotopic status ranges from marine isotopic status 11.3 to 5.5.
Here we have marked in different colours what corresponds to the warm period,
to the marine deposit which has a Senegalese fauna, the arid-warm period, which had calcretes,
and then the arid-cold period, which was rather prolonged.
According to this, and according to the evolution and achievement of everything that is happening,
for the arid-warm period that would precede a future glaciation is still to come;
because our destiny is clearly a new glaciation.
We will not see it, but it will happen.
What was the fluctuation of sea level in the Canary Islands during the last interglacial?
In deposits attributable to the marine isotopic period 5.5,
this was a forced passage of the Senegalese fauna into the Mediterranean, as Lyell said as early as 1865.
The deposits of Fuerteventura and Lanzarote were taken wrongly as Pleistocene.
They were wrongly dated, they were not Pleistocene, they were Mio-Pliocene deposits.
We were therefore unable to confirm the Mediterranean model.
There was a deposit with hundreds of Strombus buboniusdescribed by Meco in the year 1975.
And uranotorius dating was carried out between 1985 and 2002 in 4 laboratories,
but they were not useful for distinguishing stages, sub-stages or nearby isotopic events,
because the results on adjacent shells gave very different types of antiquity.
As for the height of the tanks, we saw that in Las Palmas,
were 12 metres above present sea level.
In the north of Lanzarote, plus 9 metres, but it is an area that is affected
by volcanic eruptions that occurred in the 18th century
and by others from the Upper Pleistocene, so tectonics probably helped the uplift.
Nor are we certain to say.
And in the south of Fuerteventura, the elevation in relation to the current sea level
was less than 3 metres.
It mainly occurred in the centre of the island, on the west coast,
that there is a plateau of loose fossiliferous conglomerates at a height of about 5 metres.
As far as Senegalese fauna is concerned, we know that the Strombus bubonius,
are always associated with coral Siderastrea radiansand theHarpa rosea, that live in the Gulf of Guinea.
We know that Harpa rosea moved to the north, arriving to the Canaries,
but never reached the Mediterranean; which leads the representation of the Senegalese fauna;
which requires a narrower warm interval than strombos;
which is far more resistant to migration;
and that their presence corresponds to the peak of climate change
of the marine isotopic period 5.5.
It has therefore been chosen for comparative studies on temperature in the last interglacial
by remote sensing.
Then in the interglacial, in the isotopic period 11.3,
in my thesis we also saw that, as the Atlantic Ocean is the only ocean in the world,
running from north to south and tracing like a perfect vertical,
and that there may be similarities on both sides.
As far as we were researching the bibliography
that had been published on marine isotopic status 11.3.
There is published evidence that there were deposits 400,000 years ago
which would correspond to an additional 20 metres above sea level;
and that was in the Bahamas, Ohau, Alaska, United Kingdom, Netherlands Antilles and Bermuda.
As for Bermuda, we are all scientists, and when you publish something,
another comes along and thinks about whether what he says is true or false.
They then put forward counter-arguments, but instead gave counter-replies,
that is to say, they kept quiet against those who interfered.
What is happening in the Canaries?
In the Canary Islands, it is demonstrated because it has a warm fauna in high marine deposits,
as in Lanzarote, in Piedra Alta.
This indicated that it was an interglacial with a violent episode.
The wash with pillow lavas dated to 421 kiloyears in Gran Canaria at Barranco Cardones,
indicates the beginning of marine isotopic period 11 or sub-stage 11.3.
There is the Bermuda controversy,
I have already said that they were symmetrical to the Canaries along the North Atlantic axis,
was the main support to demonstrate the sea level rise to more than 20 metres.
It is an argument we can use for the next rise if Antarctic ice melts.
Was this really because there was a tectonic at isotopic period 11?
We do not know.
Do these deposits really correspond to a megatsunami?
Or do they correspond to serene deposits?
It so happens that in the Canary Islands we have both, with Senegalese fauna
with some differences from the site of Cardones, on the coast of Arucas,
are related to the coastline,
and in Piedra Alta, Lanzarote, are related to funds that have been violated.
We have used a methodology for this, as I explained before.
All the bibliography that was in the National Museum of Natural Sciences in Madrid,
the Naturhistorisches Museum Wien of Vienna and
the Palaeontology Laboratory of the Biology Department of the ULPGC.
We have revised all the original diagnosis and synonymies as a guarantee of the geographical data.
We have carried out a study, taking temperature and chlorophyll samples,
in a number of sampling areas.
We have quantified Sea Surface Temperatures,
of the places where these species live today,
in order to infer from them the temperature reached in the interglacials mentioned above.
Synoptic databases, obtained by means of artificial satellites, have been used,
provided by the Division of Robotics and Computational Oceanography.
Treatment of Ocean Surface Temperature and Chlorophyll scenes
has consisted of obtaining daily, weekly, monthly and monthly syntheses
and yearly in the Eastern Atlantic from 1985 to 2009,
we have made about 1 million 16 thousand temperature observations, which we will explain later.
A constellation of satellites has been used.
For temperature we have used 5-band satellites
with thermal infrared to measure the temperature, with a Swath of 2,700 kilometres,
with high repeatability, with a spatial resolution of 1.1 km and a radiometric resolution of 10 bits.
And for chlorophyll we have used satellites SeaWiFS7/OrbView
with 8 bands, 6 visible and 2 infrared, with a Swath of 2800 km,
with a high repeatability, with a spatial resolution of 1.1 km and a radial resolution of 10 bits.
The thesis had lots of graphs that I won't bore you with.
More or less we see the variation of temperatures by sampling area, so it is clear
than all the others, the Canary Islands is the bottom one, we hardly get 25 degrees.
In the chlorophyll you can see the contribution of chlorophyll, which does not indicate much either.
These are the monthly averages for both temperature and chlorophyll,
from 1999 to 2007.
We have already raised all the issues that we raised with the preceding studies,
we identified the species, the Saccostrea cucullata, the one above is also a vivar.
The specimens in the laboratory correspond to the Harpa rosea.
As for meteo-oceanography, we knew from previous studies,
that they first had to have the necessary temperature to be able to lay their clutches
was 24 degrees Celsius.
The results we had obtained were, for the warm months, 20.77 degrees,
the maximum temperature in the Canary Islands, 23 at the Banc d' Arguin
and 24 or more than 24 in the other zones.
If we applied the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the distribution was normal,
because the values were less than or equal to 1.5.
And the U-Mann-Whitney test indicated that Senegal and Cape Verde have equal means.
This is for temperature.
For chlorophyll, if there was adequate primary production, then it would influence
the laying period and larval development.
The results for the warm months, in the Canary Islands we had no more than 0.17 mg/m3,
while in Banc d' Arguin it was 6.74 and in Senegal 7.97.
Other values were widely dispersed.
Applying the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test gave us less than or equal to 1.5;
and with the U-Mann-Whitney test Senegal and the Banc d' Arguin had equal means,
the same as Guinea and Cape Verde.
The ocean currents, those of us here know what the ocean currents are
we have in the Canary Islands, both in the northern winter and in the southern summer.
We came to the conclusions, what we called the Saccostrea cucullatawas the Saccostrea cucullata;
what we called Harpa rosea was the Harpa Rosea.
As for the palaeoclimatic conclusions, we saw that the temperature in the Canary Islands,
with everything we had done, that we had collected data from 1985 to 2009,
the average was 20.44, while at the stations it was 20.77,
so there were very few variations.
The areas where the Harpa rosea was alive, as the average was 21.68 at the Banc d' Arguin,
but other conditions did allow life to develop;
and 27.23 in Guinea.
The average for the warm seasons was 22.59 at Banc d'Arguin and 27.43 in Guinea.
There was a difference of 1.82 to 6.66 for isotopic status 5.5,
which modified and increased the accuracy of the data obtained so far
we had based on the Strombus bubonius Mediterranean fossil.
Regarding the areas of the Saccostrea cucullata,live specimens of Saccostrea cucullata
have been found in a much more limited area, limited only to the Gulf of Guinea.
The average temperature was 22.86 in Namibe and 27.23 in Guinea
The average in warm seasons was 23.97 and 27.43.
First time these temperatures have been deduced for the interglacial of the marine idiotopic period 11.3,
which was only known to have been found in Alaskan deposits of this age,
some extralimital species appear from there.
About sea level, we know that in the past they were related to geological activity
of the deposits.
It has been shown that the temperature was higher, as it implies a new volume of ice
than today and a higher sea level.
As for the marine isotopic period 11.3, which is the period where the Saccostrea cucullata,
as in the Atlantic of the Canary Islands, it exceeded the current one with an annual change
which were at least 2.42 ºC to 3.53 ºC the highest,
and at most 6.66 ºC to 6.79 ºC were the highest.
This implied the certainty of a much smaller volume of ice
and a higher sea level than at present.
There were about 7 metres that were due to the melting of the arctic ice, and more than 10 metres
that would be needed to exceed the height of 10 metres plus the melting of Antarctic ice.
This confirmation through the paleoindicator is new in relation to what has been previously published.
In terms of isotopic status 5.5, the Atlantic of the Canary Islands exceeds the present one with a variation
of at least 1.24°C to 1.82°C in relation to the highest;
and at most from 6.66 ºC to 6.79 ºC.
And as for sea elevation,
if we consider the minima, the sea elevation would correspond to about 7.26 metres,
which is more or less similar to what we had in the marine isotopic state 11.3.
The maximums of the minimums would be 6.42 metres.
And the maxima would not be possible to differentiate between the two isotopic states at sea levels,
that at least 11.3 would be 6 metres above the current one.
The chlorophyll condition is the same, with the concentrations it is all the same.
As for the Canarian presence of these species that we have used as palaeoindicators,
related to their requirements for reproduction and larval dispersal.
That is clear, for someone to arrive they have to have a reproduction.
and a reproduction of the larvae to bring them here.
The species of Saccostrea cucullata that were considered here, were only the African ones,
which is very poorly studied.
For a point of reference, we use Morton's studies from 1990,
on Hong Kong mangroves in the Indian Ocean on gonadal development.
The temperature there in September is 33.5°C,
they mature in October and lay in May and the temperature is approximately 24.5 ºC.
Here we hardly get it.
When the Harpa rosea is much less studied,
their reproduction is coupled to the times when primary reproduction is greatest,
which usually coincides with higher solar irradiance in temperate waters;
a rise in temperature and an increased presence of nutrients in the water,
by terrestrial input, rainfall, upwelling and so on.
In terms of climate anticipation, taking into account what we have seen at the beginning,
the paleotemperature conclusions, we have handled 1,056,186 data,
confirm what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says.
There is a continuous rise in our temperatures, which is similar to what happened in the past
in both periods.
What will be the effects?
Rising temperatures, rising sea levels,
decrease in sea ice cover,
there will be changes in salinity, waves and ocean circulation.
There will be a feedback on global climate and there will be impacts on biological production.
So if El Niño-related warming increases in frequency,
plankton biomass and larval abundance will decline.
Coastal and marine ecosystems will be affected.
According to the projections of the Fourth Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
the temperature increase will be 0.1°C per decade, even reaching 0.2°C.
So it may be that the Harpa rosea and other species of the same period
can populate the Canary Islands.
In contrast, theSaccostrea cucullatacarries a geological path of southward displacement,
since the Lower Pleistocene.
It is leaving Morocco, leaving the Mediterranean and settling in the Canary Islands,
leaves the Canaries and leaves Cape Verde.
This non-return during this marine isotopic period of the Saccostrea
to the Canary Islands and Cape Verde, means that it is going in a different direction.
Maybe it's going to South Africa, who knows.
There you have more or less what can happen, where the fossils are and where they live.
Allow me that whoever believes that everything is written in this world, then Cicero already,
on the nature of the gods said "it is easier for me to find arguments
to prove that something is false you have to prove that something is true".
And Cicero already said that.
Then, if any of us have read Daniel Defoe in Robinson Crusoe,
I have extracted a few sentences that say:
"I have often been able to observe how incongruous and irrational the human nature is...
when confronted with the reason that should guide it...
Namely, that man is not ashamed of his deeds, for which, in righteousness,
will be regarded as a fool, but to turn back, which would earn them the reputation of prudent men".
Daniel Defoe said this in Robinson Crusoe.
By this I mean, I'm going to make a hymn to palaeontology, everything passes, everything comes back,
life is cyclical.
Climate change exists and will exist.
Another point is what is the human impact.
This is an individual action, no matter what governments say.
Each of us has to think globally, but act locally.
Thank you very much and I hope I have not bored you.
You don't want any questions, do you? OK, yes.
In early September we were following a small hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean,
approached the Canary Islands, then went towards the Azores; it stayed 17 days a full-fledged hurricane.
It is one of the longest in history, Nadine was its name.
Now this Sandy is coming to New York.
Things that apparently have to do with change.
When climate change is mentioned and climate change emissions are almost exclusively talked about
emissions of greenhouse gases, it is often not taken into account that the atmosphere is a very fast-moving medium.
Y La Tierra tiene muchísimos mecanismos de feedback.
And these feedback mechanisms, more rain in one place, less in another.
The problem, which is sometimes not sufficiently cited in my opinion, is what about the sea?
For example with the thermohaline current.
When we talk about winters being cold, there used to be winters or springs,
the responsibility lies more with the thermohaline current than with the atmosphere.
Thanks are also due here to the palaeontologists,
The proxies will tell us what happens, because thermohaline currents are not always like this.
And at different times it changes and will change.
In the thesis I have some transparency of the thermohaline current, but not here.
What we are facing is not only the air, but the sea as well.
And in this sense, I believe that one can never fail to mention this aspect when talking about climate change.
One important issue is to thank palaeontology, which unfortunately
during the 50s, 60s, after Darwin it seemed that science made them stamp collectivists;
thanks to all this, they have made a spectacular comeback on the scene.
Moreover, they are also the ones that provide us with data on what the past was like
so the rest of us scientists have to be grateful for this.
I totally agree with you, but totally.
Yes, I've seen you take a lot of notes.
I have taken notes, but because I like it.
Of these two interglacial episodes you mention, one of 400,000 years and the other of 128,000 years;
Note that at the beginning of the conference you went a bit overboard on the causes
of climate and temperature changes.
From your experience, what would you associate these two major changes with?
Would you associate them with Milankovitch cycles?
No.
What I had to learn about in order to write my thesis,
Milankovitch's theories, well, we did a study that I haven't told you about here,
because we studied exactly the two marine isotopic periods.
The thesis is in the library, you can read it on 1.5 and 1.3.
There are as many detractors as there are defenders of the Milankovitch Theory.
Some say that orbital changes may play a role,
and others who say no, not at all.
It may have an impact, but not to the extent that it causes so much climate change.
Climate change cannot be attributed to one thing, it is an accumulation of things.
I read about it in the newspaper and did not discuss it with anyone in my team
that when the tsunami hit Japan, the Earth's axis shifted by 10 centimetres.
Logically, nobody talks about that any more.
Perhaps this displacement may have played a role in these extreme temperature changes.
Well, I'm sure it does.
It is obviously a set of things.
We cannot say that only the temperature has an influence.
Well, no, it is influenced by temperature and many other things.
Why is it called Greenland? Because in its original language, they meant green land.
It was a name like that because they wanted it or it was because it was not covered with ice.
Logically, there are lots of causes that lead to that.
I don't think we as human beings are going to provoke disaster any more.
What we are seeing, because of the impact of human beings, is that there are billions of us,
interglacial periods are shortening,
because we see it in curves like the ones we saw before.
I think so, because at the end of the day, we are a parasite on Planet Earth.
There is a carrying capacity for everything, and then there are many of us
for this planet to endure.
And on top of that we have plundered what we had, because wherever we go we plunder it.
That's why I say think globally and act locally.
I was mainly referring to, for example, the seismicity of the Earth changing every 100,000 years,
as one is 400,000 and the other 100,000, it will have to do with the eccentricity of the Earth.
As the rotational movement is every 20,000 years, let's see if you have studied this relationship.
No.
What the spin is, the precession yes.
Well, that hasn't occurred to me, that could be the subject of a publication before you retire.
In fact I have been told that it is global.
It's in Bermuda, for example, which is not just here.
This is a problem that we cannot address because it belongs to astronomers and it is already
studied and there are people who know what it is like.
We cannot undertake such studies, we do not have the capacity.
And finally, the beautiful thing that you are studying are the interglacials, when you already
climate change, but a great future there is for people who dive, who have marine robot
is to think about the glacial deposits that have been there, all the ones that are underwater,
that are unstudied at 20, 100, 200 metres; and to know easily what interglacials are,
but the unstudied and untouched underwater reservoirs would be missing.
Count me out.
The Iron Age, the Middle Ages...
I wanted to say one thing; there was a standstill in the currents.
5 million years ago and is demonstrated by the completely warm fauna.
Associated with that are huge deposits,
that we have linked to hurricanes and heavy rains, such as the Las Palmas reservoirs
and others like it on Fuerteventura.
In a way, it is a novelty and we also relate to it
about 5 months before Hurricane Nadine hit.
I said that this has happened here before, about 5 million years ago.
from the beginning of the Pleistocene to the end of the Miocene, which is when Panama closes.
When we talk about change not affecting us yet,
100-odd people have died in New York from Nile fever, a bug that has jumped a barrier.
Well, like everything else, and floods, but like everything else.
The problem with flooding is that local councils give licences
to build in the middle of a ravine, in the middle of a watercourse, and water
The natural course of events continues and we shake our heads. But no.
You are talking about a certain homogeneity in the North Atlantic, in the Atlantic in general,
which may be the final result.
Recent studies say that the Atlantic does not function equally in all areas.
But what we were looking for was symmetry and in those isotopic periods.
Related studies to show what was going on and to have an element of comparison
with other sites or other studies on the other side of the Atlantic, in case there was symmetry.
Finding the entire thermohaline current and the incidence of all currents.ç
Today, articles have come out saying that the Canaries and Bermuda do not work in the same way,
what conditions have to change for them to work the same. It may be related to circulation.
Probably. As Joaquín says, the thermohaline circulation,
I have a transparency with all circulation, but not here;
It may happen that due to the rise in temperature the situation changes,
and then stop again, as my director said.
The temperature of the Atlantic, which is not homogeneous and is not homogeneous between layers.
The big temperature increase is in the higher, shallower layers.
The current that resembles the Canary Current, not the thermohaline.
I have my doubts about that, but OK.
I say that today, in the Canary Islands, the surface temperature is increasing,
and initially in the first 700 metres, but on the west side this is not happening.
It is increasing at the surface, but not in the thermohaline, so there are some differences,
that it is not yet known which way they will go.
Even historical temperature records are being called into question with respect to
the last 10 years, when the programme has been in place,
there is no evidence that the records are sufficiently valid.
This can also happen.
But I tell you, we have compared with the literature of the same isotopic periods,
I have seen millions of articles.
But well, that's all there is to it, and my thesis is not an end.
My thesis is a start.
It is to open.
What I find most interesting is, connecting the palaeontological findings
with the current situation, which is what shocks me.
Because nowadays doubts are being established, because in the last 20 years
temperature increases are significantly lower than those predicted 50 years ago,
if indeed the palaeontological results incline us to believe
that this is going to have a continuous trend, I don't know if it will be exponential, linear or how,
results depend on the models,
The question is how to connect palaeontological results with current data.
In principle, this is what my thesis is about.
But I say again, my thesis does not close a field of research.
My thesis is an opening, this is what it is.
Whoever wants to take the baton and carry on.
This means that it is a question of precision in language.
We have some fossils that show that there was a temperature here,
it is not logical to think that the fossil has changed from, I was cold and now I am hot,
rather, it is the environmental circumstances that have changed.
The presence of fossils from the Gulf of Guinea and the Caribbean,
because some still live today in the Gulf of Guinea and the Caribbean,
for example the Siderastrea radians, that it is a coral.
Fossils are found here in Las Palmas and elsewhere in the archipelago.
The presence of such fauna indicates that the temperature here was higher,
which is in all likelihood related and as the most possible explanation we now see,
with a standstill of the Canary current.
If not total paralysis, at least the Canary current should turn around further upstream,
further north of Portugal, as some of this fauna has entered the Mediterranean.
It is what is called Senegalese fauna there, and previously there was fauna that came in
of the Arctic, with some fossils as well, which are the Cyprina islandica and the Hyalinea balthica,
which is what the Italians called ospiti nordici, guests from the north.
And then comes the Senegalese fauna.
In other words, there are very clear changes at the entrance to the Mediterranean.
And we who are the southern ramp of this gateway to the Mediterranean,
For here are these testimonies.
This most likely indicates a stalling of the Canary Current.
Now the relationship between the Canary current and depth, I have no idea.
That is oceanographer stuff.
You are talking about the first 700 metres of water,
we are talking about this body of water that you are identifying as surface water,
is mainly generated by ventilation processes in the winter.
That's really what characterises the temperature it's going to have
and the salinity it will have.
We only talk about the Sea Surface Temperature,
i.e. the surface temperature which is the one captured from satellites.
In the Gulf of Guinea is the interesting part of this fauna, which we have seen here,
is that they are very shallow, i.e. they do not occur deeper than 10 metres.
They really are littoral.
However, this ratio of satellite temperatures,
is the only one possible at the moment.
When you go on expeditions to Africa and go to every place with a thermometer,
I have put it in some places and the water is at 30, 32 ºC.
But that is a different job.
Teams must be moved to the sites, the opportunity to take advantage of the information
of satellite surface temperatures to apply to this.
That the application is not correct, it could be.
for the moment we have used a weapon.
I was interested to know, because from the palaeontological findings
There is a certain homogeneity between the two coasts,
and I have been working on the comparison of the two coasts for some time now.
Homogeneity is only in height above sea level deposits,
not in fauna.
That is, the sea was 20 metres higher in Bermuda and 20 metres higher in the Canaries.
Now, what the sea was like in Bermuda will be told by the study of Bermuda's fauna
and the relationships they had.
And yes there is fauna in common, but we have to go further back than the Mio-Pliocene.
There was common ground not only with Bermuda, but with the entire Caribbean and the Panama area,
prior to the closure, there was theoretically a mass of surface water, well La Niña,
that crossed the entire Pacific.
It wet those coasts and possibly reached the Canary Islands, we don't know, there are so many models.
What is known is that there is fossil fauna in the Canary Islands that you find in Panama
and in the Caribbean.
But of course, you have to have the vision of the past.
That is, he talks about 4 million years ago and I talk about 420,000 years ago.
The same as we will be more or less, a situation of knowing
that a Roman 2,000 years, the Middle Ages 1,100 years, that the Assyrians...
The same applies to all periods for which there are deposits.
It is not only the geographical situation, but also the time frame.
I think the problem is mainly conceptual, because when we talk about climate change,
one sees for example what we saw before, 400,000 years with 4 glacial and 4 interglacial periods,
and takes up one and a half metres; the history of the Earth is 35 kilometres that way.
So we see that it has always had this kind of oscillations.
In the present case, I think the difference between a glacial and an interglacial period,
is to now have 3 kilometres of ice on your neck or not to have them at all.
Perhaps, from my point of view, that we are at the end of what would be that curve,
because for me climate change is a more severe thing, a meteorite for example.
The other day I was watching on television traps in Siberia that generated events
volcanological events that lasted hundreds of years and changed the climate.
When we talk about climate change, I think it is somewhat pretentious on the part of human beings,
because they are small changes, "tropicalisations" is the term I like to use.
because I assume climate change would be something much more beastly.
For the last 20 million years the climate has been more or less like this.
And two million years ago.
And 400,000 years ago.
And it has gone higher and higher, so it may now go even higher.
The previous ones were much shorter.
It looks as if a star has passed around the Earth and started to fly around a bit.
Because I'm telling you, it's like that, like that and then the upheavals again, but lower than the others.
Those are interglacial-glacial oscillations, but now we have the end point of the graph,
so conditions are changing minimally, by 1 degree every 20 years.
Personally I think that climate change, 20,000 years ago the sea level was rising.
I think political climate change is a bit like the ant versus the elephant.
There is no stopping climate change.
Wouldn't it be more accurate to speak of tropicalisation rather than climate change?
That perhaps it refers to other kinds of events occurring at different spatio-temporal scales.
Tropizalisation here in the Canary Islands, but in Sweden I don't know.
That is why the Canary Islands are interesting, because they are
halfway between the equator and the pole.
It is always cold at the pole, more or less, but always cold
and it is always hot at the equator.
But the Canary Islands where climate changes are recorded,
fortunately, they are trapped by lava flows that can be dated.
This happens in few places on Earth.
A very quick question on the issue of deposits,
In Madeira, did they finally find deposits as well?
Yes.
It was to know if the altitude, if the water temperature changes, if the water temperature changes
They also reached as far as Madeira.
Of course.
Any more questions, any more curiosities?
For those of you who are studying and are working on your thesis or dissertation, I encourage you to go ahead.
and that it's nice to do research, it is like having a little child that you feed.
May I make a clarification?
I encourage them, but I encourage them to do theses in palaeontology.
Well sure of course.
That is clear; you know everything we have in the present comes from what we had in the past,
Everything we do today will have an impact on the future.
Well, thank you very much for your attention.