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Dear all, colleagues, students.
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Avelina has been kind enough to invite me to introduce Mercedes Montesinos
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and many thanks to Avelina and all those who have bothered to come
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or who have an interest in these issues.
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Mercedes Montesinos is the author.
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Mercedes Montesinos holds a degree in Biology from the Complutense University of Madrid
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and also in Pharmacy.
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Since those years we know each other
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because the Bachelor of Biology and Geology, I am a geologist,
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Biology and Geology degrees had just separated very recently.
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Because in the past, all the professors, the great professors
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geologists, and more from the Complutense University, and biologists
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had actually studied natural sciences.
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In other words, they were more broadly trained than they are today.
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I studied botany, paleozoology and then, of course, zoology,
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palaeobotany, palaeozoology, palaeontology and so on.
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And Mercedes Montesinos studied Quaternary and Human Palaeontology.
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In Quaternary and Human Palaeontology we organised a trip to Senegal and Mauritania
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by the 1960s.
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And so, one of the first intentions
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was what is now called climate change,
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because of course, what we did was to see the deposits in Nouakchott,
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the Quaternary deposits of Nouakchott,
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quite far inland from the coast of Mauritania, inland
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and these deposits had already been published by 1910,
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The thing is that at that time, Mauritania was called Senegal.
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and Morocco was what was called Mauritania.
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In other words, the geographical locations have also changed in terms of the old publications.
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Another of the things we were looking at was the IFAN collection,
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the French Institute of Black Africa.
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It is called French, then foundational, because they kept the acronym by changing an initial.
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I mean that already many years ago, there was already an intention to investigate
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the issues that were at the root of the migration of African fauna,
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even as far as the Mediterranean.
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In the last interglacial, the Mediterranean deposits in 1914, they were called "the layers with strombus"
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and the strombus live, as a genus, in all warm seas
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and as a species, in particular the strombus bubonius, in the Gulf of Guinea;
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having its southern boundary in Angola and its northern boundary in Dakar and the Cape Verde Islands.
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After that, Mercedes Montesinos took competitive examinations.
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So you have done something that I am totally against,
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and against the World Bank and all its cronies,
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which was work, work, work and never stop working.
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She was then reclaimed from the nuclear energy board by the Ministry of Environment
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and it is there that she has tried to fight for politicians of all stripes to
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who have been her bosses, will not go far wrong.
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She has been a great contributor to all of this and has held positions such as
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Area Coordinator of the Office of the Secretary General for the Prevention of Pollution and Climate Change
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Coordinator of the Cabinet Area of the Secretary of State for Climate Change,
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Coordinator of the Cabinet Area of the Secretariat of State for the Environment,
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and Support Unit for the Directorate General for Environmental Quality and Assessment.
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She had something inside her that told her, I could not do my doctoral thesis at the time.
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In fact, she had it made many years ago, but the circumstances of work and service
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had prevented her from doing it, and now she chose us to do her doctoral thesis.
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And then she is the one who is going to talk to them about the doctoral thesis.
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Thank you all very much.
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Sorry. I remembered seeing Avelina, who tells me that palaeontology is very important,
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because nobody has ever given importance to palaeontology here, not even politicians,
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despite the fact that famous people like Lyell have come to study and publish the deposits of La Palma,
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but here, the administrations have ignored the whole paleontological question
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of the whole issue of fossils
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and also the university itself to a certain extent.
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So what I wanted to tell you about palaeontology is that it gives a new vision
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to the people who know palaeontology.
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I'll give just two examples, to see if I can remember one of them, because everyone says so.
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Who came first, the chicken or the egg?
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You have no idea about palaeontology.
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Because chickens are birds, birds lay eggs,
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the ancestors of birds are reptiles, reptiles lay eggs,
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Therefore, the egg always comes before the chicken, and those who do not know this are fools.
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That on the one hand, and on the other hand, for example,
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the other day I saw a picture on the internet with a human of ours who had 8 toes on each hand and foot.
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I would have liked to ask you what you think about it.
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Quite simply, 350 million years ago, the first fish that emerged from the sea
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had 8 protofingers, and then, in a few million years, from 8 to 5;
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which is the pentadactyl limb of the terrestrial tetrapods.
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Land tetrapods, all whales and all snakes even if they have no legs, and all birds.
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So this is the chiridium, the chiridium. The hand.
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Te quiero agarrar (I want to grab you).
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And agarrar also comes from garra.
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So four-legged digestive tracts, that is what we are.
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Always eating, and the opposite.
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Thank you very much Joaquín for the presentation.
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As you have seen, has no merit after getting to know us
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since I was 17 years old and I am 68.
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I do thank him for the words he addressed to me, because he is right,
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I mean, I'm a freak, I've been in administration for 44 years,
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and as a general manager I had, he always told me:
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"May God pay you, because we have already seen what the administration pays those of us who are here," he said.
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and what the administration will pay you tomorrow if you are not civil servants.
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They are taking away our privileges, not only our extra pay, but also our muscosos days,
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that we have earned for being grey-haired.
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And that in reality, those days were given to us because they could not pay us money.
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So, it is clear that I had 15 moscosos and now they have left me with 3,
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like many of us here.
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So when I got in touch with Avelina and she had told me that she had created this forum
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I loved the idea of a knowledge-sharing, science promotion cycle,
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because it is obvious: white hair, 68 years old...
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and I became enthusiastic about the idea of doing the thesis
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when I was lucky enough to fall into the good hands of Antonio, Per, Álex, Joaquín and Tachi;
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who encouraged me to start from the beginning,
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because logically when I did that thesis at the age of 24 it never occurred to me,
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because I couldn't continue with my work, so I had to validate the subjects
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and so I had to start from the beginning.
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I was lucky enough to meet people like Pedro Sosa, Luis Felipe, mi Señora de los Rodolfitos.
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In other words, I had my work cut out for me, well worked out.
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But I have not regretted it, because for the last 24 years that I have been in the administration, I have not regretted it,
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I started by doing reports, advising the people next door,
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but logically you are then sent to management,
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that is, you have to manage; and you like it, but you don't like it
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and fell into the hands of the nuclear energy board,
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who gave me a very good training, because the military was there when I got there.
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We were all squared,
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but they teach you to think, believe it or not, they teach you to think and to commit yourself to the work.
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When we entered Europe and the first meeting had to be held, Spain was the presidency,
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I was taken from the board to go and lend a hand to the ministry,
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because at that time the Environment was in the Ministry of Public Works, in other words, civil engineers.
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Talk to road engineers about environmental impact, about the things that had to be done.
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What I mean is that we have had, in the course of time, to adapt to the changing times
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and when I saw the possibility, which I, moreover, had studied in the field of radioecology
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the possibility of leaving for a while, then in the evenings when I got home,
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to devote myself to what I liked, which was research.
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Even if it was on paper, and to be able to collaborate with this university, I was delighted.
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When Avelina said "could you give pep talks to the kids?"
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My presence alone, in other words, it is clear that we must never give up.
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There are possibilities for everyone, and it all depends on the effort you put into it.
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So I have divided the talk into two parts,
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because of course what I have done in the thesis, under the guidance of Antonio and Joaquín,
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is to study two fossils, two little things that were there and what this leads us to.
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I am going to tell you what happened here in the Canary Islands,
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that there has been climate change.
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I'm going to tell you a little bit about what is known about the progress of climate change, I'm going to start there.
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I always say one thing when I teach a class about the environment that relates to what Joaquín said.
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The present we are living in has developed out of the past,
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but our future depends on what we do in the present.
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And it is exactly the same for the issue of climate change and the environment.
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I always tell one thing and that is that when I am the environment class.
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One thing is very clear.
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When Europe and our country suffered two great wars in the 20th century.
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Then what happened?
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Politicians, no matter who they were, found themselves with unstructured countries,
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families with generations missing, no jobs and destroyed cities.
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And the first thing they had to do in their own country was to rebuild the country,
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create jobs and settle the population.
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So what was the problem?
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Nobody cared about the environment.
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From there came the industrial boom and from there came the fact that little by little we are destroying everything.
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Then, at the Stockholm Conference in 1972, the alarm was sounded,
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the Bruntland Report and the Club of Rome begins,
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and then we started to deal with the concept of sustainable development.
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But does that lead us to what we are really aware of? Well, we don't know.
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Is climate change a new thing? No.
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Earth is a living planet. The Earth defends itself. There we have all the glaciations.
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We all know that climate change has always existed and will always exist.
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Now, what needs to be seen is how far the andropogenic influence takes us.
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So I have divided the talk into two parts.
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What is climate change and what I have told you about my thesis I will skip over.
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This is our planet, which looks like this from the moon.
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We look like somebody, don't we? But no, we don't look like anybody.
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But what is to be done?
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Think globally and act locally.
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That our passage through the galaxy is already. As long as we live; we are no one.
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So what do we know about climate change?
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What we know is that humankind as a whole has increased emissions
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and concentrations of greenhouse gases that have always existed in the atmosphere.
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But if this increase is not slowed down, the intensification of the greenhouse effect will
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could lead to unnatural climate change.
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Irreversible in the short term and harmful to human life and nature.
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Human life as we know it now.
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What are the causes of climate change?
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We have external causes and internal causes.
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As for external causes,
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we have variations in the orbital parameters; the Milankovitch cycles.
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Some scientifics agree with, some don't.
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Variations in solar irradiance; solar cycles.
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And then meteorites due to the presence of interstellar dust.
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Then we have internal ones, such as volcanism; aerosols of various origins,
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that are natural, non-volcanic or produced by human activity;
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changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases, which can be of natural or human origin;
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and changes in the land surface; desertification, deforestation, albedo changes...
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Much of this is the cause and we humans are to blame.
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This is an example of the Milankovitch orbital parameters,
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and this would be the radiative forcings. What solar radiation we receive,
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which is reflected and which is the terrestrial radiation emitted.
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What are the common greenhouse gases, what are the origins?
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And their contribution to global warming?
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There are basically 4 types of gases:
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CO2, its main sources are the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation
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and it contributes to global warming by 55%;
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chlorofluorocarbons and related gases, which come from various industrial uses:
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refrigerators, foam sprays, solvents and then extensive agriculture,
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which contribute 24%;
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we have methane, coal mining, gas leakage, deforestation,
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plant and soil respiration due to global warming, and enteric fermentation,
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is 15%;
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and nitrous oxide, i.e. agriculture, intensive forestry, biomass burning,
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the use of fertilisers, the burning of fossil fuels; that is the least affected.
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So where does the CO2 come from and where does it go?
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In gigatonnes per carbon per year, we see who produces it.
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Fossil fuels and cement we have 5.5 tonnes,
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tropical deforestation 1.6
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Total anthropogenic emissions 7.1, but where do they end up?
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3.3 accumulates in the atmosphere, 2.0 or so is fixed in oceanic systems,
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and in the fixation of ground systems a 1.8.
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This is a clear example of what civilisation is leading us to, the light pollution.
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Here we can find out which countries contribute most to global warming.
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It is clear that it is the developed countries that contribute the most: The United States 30.3%,
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the European Union 27%; already all the countries that are not underdeveloped this is what we contribute
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to global warming.
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What is expected to happen with global warming?
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There will be temperature differences, sea level rise, rainfall variation.
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What is this going to do to us?
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Health impacts, agricultural impacts, impacts on forestry, impacts on water resources
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and in everything else, in the forests and so on.
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So from the point of view that we tried to capture in the thesis that I did.
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What is really going to change the sea level?
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Three main causes:
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Thermal expansion is one of the main contributors to historical sea level changes.
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It is expected to contribute the largest component to sea level rise over the next 100 years.
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Deep ocean temperatures change very slowly,
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thermal expansion would therefore continue for many centuries.
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The geographic distribution of sea level change is the result of
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of geographical variation in thermal expansion, changes in salinity,
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of winds and ocean circulation.
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It will also modify the sea level when the oceanic water mass rises or not.
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So what are the causes of sea level rise?
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It will be a function of the source and the changes observed.
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In this transparency we see the observed changes in the mean surface temperature,
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in mean sea level rise according to tide gauge data shown in blue.
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And on satellite, this is data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
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and the decrease in snow cover in the northern hemisphere during the period March-April,
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The same period, March-April, is always taken.
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If we look at what is the comparison of the observed data,
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we have the changes all over the continents as you can see,
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the most certainly in the United States and Europe,
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then what would be the global change below, the global change of the Earth and the global change of the ocean.
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Normally this has been done with simulation, with mathematical models, taking some data,
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we see that if there were no anthropogenic activity, the normal line would be blue,
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but if we take anthropogenic action into account we would be shooting ourselves in the foot.
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As you can see over the years, the models predict that there is going to be a lot of variation.
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So what are the climate changes that are predicted for the future?
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In the future, the average global temperature is expected to increase from 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius;
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The Northern Hemisphere's emerged surface area will decrease and Antarctic Ocean ice will increase;
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sea level to rise from 9 to 88 centimetres;
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and other changes and an increase in extreme weather events.
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We have always said that there was seasonality change, but abrupt temperature changes,
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I mean, when I was a child, in Madrid there were 4 seasons: spring, summer, autumn, winter;
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now we move from the bikini to the fur coat,
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But not only that, it happens for weeks at a time.
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For example, last week in Madrid we had highs of twenty-something degrees,
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And well, yesterday I went out there at 2 degrees.
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It's those abrupt changes in temperature.
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The Canary Islands have always had a privileged climate.
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Do you want to tell me what we are doing at Gando airport at 19:00 at almost 30 degrees?
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It's not normal, we haven't even had it in August.
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So perhaps climate change will lead to these extreme weather events
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this is all long-term, but there is already some representation of it.
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So to predict the change in future climate scenarios,
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the people at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, that there are people who are advocating
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the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other detractors,
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because, of course, the expert who was not included got angry, and as he got angry
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then all is disproved, everything in this life is the same,
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that when we are left out of something the way is to lash out at the insider.
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has a number of scenarios.
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We have a society in which there are more and more of us on Earth,
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we have to take into account demographics, societal development and energy consumption.
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Taking these factors into account, we know the emissions we produce.
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We have carbon, it goes into the carbon cycle, it gives us a series of concentrations.
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Then we have with a planetary radiation balance, we arrive at radiative forcings.
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A climate system is modelled, the future climate is produced.
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We then look at the patterns of impacts.
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With this modelling and this background, the Intergovernmental Panel gives us scenarios.
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Scenarios that would range from a society,
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we have to say; gentlemen, there is climate change, we stand up, we think about what we do,
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What model of life do I want, what do I understand by quality of life, what do I understand by social welfare?
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Because the welfare state that we had now has led us to have 5 million
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so it must not have been very good.
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5 million unemployed. Welfare. Quality of life.
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Based on these scenarios they envisage,
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with the transparency I explained earlier,
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there is a best estimate of temperature change, each society chooses how it wants to live.
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Based on these scenarios, we know what the issue will be,
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how much it is going to affect the temperature, and then we have the curves
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of how the sea level is rising according to the scenario we have selected
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Starting from my thesis and trying not to be too boring, but I am going to be.
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But have the Canary Islands undergone climatic changes? Of course they have.
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How can they not undergo climate change, the planet Earth has undergone climate change
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since life began on planet Earth.
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We have chosen 2 fossils for my thesis and to see exactly what happened.
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One was the Saccostrea cucullata of Born ans the other one the Harpa rosea of Lamerck.
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These come mainly from the seas of the Gulf of Guinea,
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and here we have found fossils in marine deposits in the Canary Islands.
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It then allows us to compare the 2 interglacials where they were alive with the current one.
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We have chosen these species because they are palaeoindicators.
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We do it with remote sensing because it gives an idea of the temperatures we can have.
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We know that probably the last interglacial and the penultimate major interglacial
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are the most similar to the present day and that the Canary Islands have these deposits that are fossilised here,
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but a little bit further away, like the Cape Verde Islands, they are alive.
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Because they are alive and kicking.
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Then because these 2 species are each attributable to an interglacial period
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Then because these 2 species are each attributable to an interglacial period.
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we have the possibility of inferring from the conditions it requires for its existence
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those of the Pleistocene and for that we have used remote sensing.
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We have realised the geographical context ranges from the Canary Islands to Angola,
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focusing primarily on the Gulf of Guinea.
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This is the geology of the Canary Islands.
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Most probably the Canary Islands arise from a slow movement over a hot spot.
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active for more than 20 million years.
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Sedimentary records showing climatic changes over the last 5 million years.
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00:30:04,020 --> 00:30:10,020
Then there are warm phases in which marine terraces are interspersed with palaeosoils.
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This indicates an arid climate with wet intervals.
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And then there are arid episodes because there are aeolian and calcrete deposits.
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There are some marine deposits that contain the Saccostrea cucullataand the Harpa rosea
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which now inhabit the west coast of Africa and the islands of the eastern Atlantic.
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TheSaccostrea cucullata has been found alive, i.e. by a few specimens
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and described in a wealth of literature, alive from Angola to Ghana and on Ascension Island.
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and fossils are in the Canary Islands in Gran Canaria on the coast of Arucas, in La Granja del Cabildo
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and in Lanzarote at the Piedra Alta site.
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These are the deposits, I'm going to put them quickly, if anyone is interested we can analyse them.
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This is the site of Cardones, in Gran Canaria,
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which has all the characteristics of the geological survey and this is the Lanzarote site.
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Here you can see how the different camps were.
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Here it is important to see that there we had a Saccostrea cucullata
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that they couldn't take out because it broke and stayed there.
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This is the Saccostrea cucullata of the Barranco de Cardones.
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We know that it is a Saccostrea cucullata because unlike the others,
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is characterised by the heel or rostrum forming a right angle with the rest of the shell
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and that is a typical feature of the Saccostrea.
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Regarding the Harpa, we have them alive from Angola to Senegal and from Ascension Island to Cape Verde.
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00:32:05,750 --> 00:32:10,750
We have fossils in Gran Canaria, Fuerteventura and Lanzarote.
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In Gran Canaria it is in Arenales de Santa Catalina, which no longer exists because it has been built on top of it.
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The first place they appeared was in the Luengo tunnel, which means that they are underneath
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of the abandoned stadium, and they appeared the last time, afterwards,
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when the maternal car parks were built, because the island hospital was there.
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00:32:52,850 --> 00:32:59,640
Both times, the highest levels were called upon,
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00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:13,640
to leave a part that could be visited at a congress or by people interested in deposits,
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00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:20,140
deposits which were first described in 1865 by Lyell
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00:33:20,140 --> 00:33:26,640
in the sixth edition of his books, Elements of Geology.
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And there is no answer, the first time it was the Socialist Party that was responsible,
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and the second time it was the Popular Party, that is, it is of no interest here at all.
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Nothing that is truly Canarian and cultural other than an isa.
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Then in Fuerteventura it is in Matas Blancas and Las Playitas
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and in Lanzarote in Matagorda or Guasimeta, where the site has also disappeared
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And in Punta Penedo.
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Well, here you have what Joaquín says, how the cut is and everything that has been built on top of it.
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And then we have Matas Blancas and Las Playitas,
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usually the one who has collected the specimens is Doctor Meco.
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This is Fuerteventura and the Guasimeta has also disappeared.
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If we look at the comparison of Canary Island fossils of Harpa rosea with current specimens,
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there is no doubt that these are the specimens.
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What has been the evolution of bioclimatic conditions in the Canary Islands since 240,000 years ago?
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These transparecies are thanks to the kindness of my thesis director, Joaquin
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who has them published and I have appropriated them.
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As we can see, the sea level during the Upper Pleistocene, there was a rise in sea level
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of 12 metres above sea level in Las Palmas.
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There were paleosoils and marine deposits interspersed with dunes.
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From the age of the Teno lava flow we knew that there were lateritic paleosols with altered pyroclasts,
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indicates that there was high humidity and very high temperature, which allowed the vegetation to develop.
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And there was a spring effect of the inferred terminations and paleotemperatures
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of the Senegalese fauna present in the Canary Islands and the Mediterranean.
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These are oceanic conditions that we are seeing being reproduced today.
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Below are the heights of the sea levels it had suffered.
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Climate variations over the last 420,000 years,
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00:36:00,240 --> 00:36:06,240
The marine isotopic status ranges from marine isotopic status 11.3 to 5.5.
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00:36:06,240 --> 00:36:14,060
Here we have marked in different colours what corresponds to the warm period,
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to the marine deposit which has a Senegalese fauna, the arid-warm period, which had calcretes,
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and then the arid-cold period, which was rather prolonged.
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00:36:25,570 --> 00:36:31,970
According to this, and according to the evolution and achievement of everything that is happening,
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for the arid-warm period that would precede a future glaciation is still to come;
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because our destiny is clearly a new glaciation.
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We will not see it, but it will happen.
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What was the fluctuation of sea level in the Canary Islands during the last interglacial?
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In deposits attributable to the marine isotopic period 5.5,
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this was a forced passage of the Senegalese fauna into the Mediterranean, as Lyell said as early as 1865.
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The deposits of Fuerteventura and Lanzarote were taken wrongly as Pleistocene.
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They were wrongly dated, they were not Pleistocene, they were Mio-Pliocene deposits.
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00:37:22,570 --> 00:37:28,570
We were therefore unable to confirm the Mediterranean model.
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00:37:28,570 --> 00:37:36,770
There was a deposit with hundreds of Strombus buboniusdescribed by Meco in the year 1975.
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And uranotorius dating was carried out between 1985 and 2002 in 4 laboratories,
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00:37:44,370 --> 00:37:50,370
but they were not useful for distinguishing stages, sub-stages or nearby isotopic events,
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because the results on adjacent shells gave very different types of antiquity.
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00:37:59,990 --> 00:38:06,490
As for the height of the tanks, we saw that in Las Palmas,
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were 12 metres above present sea level.
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00:38:10,690 --> 00:38:17,190
In the north of Lanzarote, plus 9 metres, but it is an area that is affected
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by volcanic eruptions that occurred in the 18th century
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00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:28,440
and by others from the Upper Pleistocene, so tectonics probably helped the uplift.
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Nor are we certain to say.
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00:38:32,060 --> 00:38:38,060
And in the south of Fuerteventura, the elevation in relation to the current sea level
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00:38:38,060 --> 00:38:40,060
was less than 3 metres.
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It mainly occurred in the centre of the island, on the west coast,
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00:38:45,460 --> 00:38:52,760
that there is a plateau of loose fossiliferous conglomerates at a height of about 5 metres.
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00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:59,260
As far as Senegalese fauna is concerned, we know that the Strombus bubonius,
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00:38:59,260 --> 00:39:07,760
are always associated with coral Siderastrea radiansand theHarpa rosea, that live in the Gulf of Guinea.
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00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:14,330
We know that Harpa rosea moved to the north, arriving to the Canaries,
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00:39:14,330 --> 00:39:21,930
but never reached the Mediterranean; which leads the representation of the Senegalese fauna;
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00:39:21,930 --> 00:39:25,750
which requires a narrower warm interval than strombos;
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00:39:25,750 --> 00:39:29,450
which is far more resistant to migration;
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00:39:29,450 --> 00:39:35,450
and that their presence corresponds to the peak of climate change
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00:39:35,450 --> 00:39:38,450
of the marine isotopic period 5.5.
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00:39:38,450 --> 00:39:44,910
It has therefore been chosen for comparative studies on temperature in the last interglacial
400
00:39:44,910 --> 00:39:47,910
by remote sensing.
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00:39:47,910 --> 00:39:52,910
Then in the interglacial, in the isotopic period 11.3,
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00:39:52,910 --> 00:39:59,510
in my thesis we also saw that, as the Atlantic Ocean is the only ocean in the world,
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00:39:59,510 --> 00:40:03,610
running from north to south and tracing like a perfect vertical,
404
00:40:03,610 --> 00:40:07,020
and that there may be similarities on both sides.
405
00:40:07,020 --> 00:40:12,460
As far as we were researching the bibliography
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00:40:13,020 --> 00:40:18,020
that had been published on marine isotopic status 11.3.
407
00:40:18,020 --> 00:40:26,020
There is published evidence that there were deposits 400,000 years ago
408
00:40:26,020 --> 00:40:30,220
which would correspond to an additional 20 metres above sea level;
409
00:40:30,220 --> 00:40:38,220
and that was in the Bahamas, Ohau, Alaska, United Kingdom, Netherlands Antilles and Bermuda.
410
00:40:38,220 --> 00:40:43,520
As for Bermuda, we are all scientists, and when you publish something,
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00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:51,020
another comes along and thinks about whether what he says is true or false.
412
00:40:51,020 --> 00:40:57,240
They then put forward counter-arguments, but instead gave counter-replies,
413
00:40:57,240 --> 00:41:03,240
that is to say, they kept quiet against those who interfered.
414
00:41:03,240 --> 00:41:05,550
What is happening in the Canaries?
415
00:41:05,550 --> 00:41:13,550
In the Canary Islands, it is demonstrated because it has a warm fauna in high marine deposits,
416
00:41:13,550 --> 00:41:15,550
as in Lanzarote, in Piedra Alta.
417
00:41:15,550 --> 00:41:22,550
This indicated that it was an interglacial with a violent episode.
418
00:41:22,550 --> 00:41:29,250
The wash with pillow lavas dated to 421 kiloyears in Gran Canaria at Barranco Cardones,
419
00:41:29,250 --> 00:41:37,050
indicates the beginning of marine isotopic period 11 or sub-stage 11.3.
420
00:41:37,050 --> 00:41:39,310
There is the Bermuda controversy,
421
00:41:39,310 --> 00:41:43,630
I have already said that they were symmetrical to the Canaries along the North Atlantic axis,
422
00:41:43,630 --> 00:41:49,430
was the main support to demonstrate the sea level rise to more than 20 metres.
423
00:41:49,430 --> 00:41:57,430
It is an argument we can use for the next rise if Antarctic ice melts.
424
00:41:57,430 --> 00:42:05,230
Was this really because there was a tectonic at isotopic period 11?
425
00:42:05,230 --> 00:42:06,430
We do not know.
426
00:42:06,430 --> 00:42:10,750
Do these deposits really correspond to a megatsunami?
427
00:42:10,750 --> 00:42:14,250
Or do they correspond to serene deposits?
428
00:42:14,250 --> 00:42:20,020
It so happens that in the Canary Islands we have both, with Senegalese fauna
429
00:42:20,020 --> 00:42:25,720
with some differences from the site of Cardones, on the coast of Arucas,
430
00:42:25,720 --> 00:42:27,880
are related to the coastline,
431
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:34,180
and in Piedra Alta, Lanzarote, are related to funds that have been violated.
432
00:42:34,980 --> 00:42:41,480
We have used a methodology for this, as I explained before.
433
00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:46,130
All the bibliography that was in the National Museum of Natural Sciences in Madrid,
434
00:42:46,130 --> 00:42:49,800
the Naturhistorisches Museum Wien of Vienna and
435
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:53,800
the Palaeontology Laboratory of the Biology Department of the ULPGC.
436
00:42:53,800 --> 00:43:01,600
We have revised all the original diagnosis and synonymies as a guarantee of the geographical data.
437
00:43:01,900 --> 00:43:07,400
We have carried out a study, taking temperature and chlorophyll samples,
438
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:12,400
in a number of sampling areas.
439
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:18,400
We have quantified Sea Surface Temperatures,
440
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:21,840
of the places where these species live today,
441
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:27,240
in order to infer from them the temperature reached in the interglacials mentioned above.
442
00:43:27,240 --> 00:43:33,240
Synoptic databases, obtained by means of artificial satellites, have been used,
443
00:43:33,240 --> 00:43:38,040
provided by the Division of Robotics and Computational Oceanography.
444
00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:42,550
Treatment of Ocean Surface Temperature and Chlorophyll scenes
445
00:43:42,550 --> 00:43:46,460
has consisted of obtaining daily, weekly, monthly and monthly syntheses
446
00:43:46,460 --> 00:43:52,060
and yearly in the Eastern Atlantic from 1985 to 2009,
447
00:43:52,060 --> 00:44:00,460
we have made about 1 million 16 thousand temperature observations, which we will explain later.
448
00:44:00,460 --> 00:44:04,110
A constellation of satellites has been used.
449
00:44:04,110 --> 00:44:08,510
For temperature we have used 5-band satellites
450
00:44:08,510 --> 00:44:14,510
with thermal infrared to measure the temperature, with a Swath of 2,700 kilometres,
451
00:44:14,510 --> 00:44:22,010
with high repeatability, with a spatial resolution of 1.1 km and a radiometric resolution of 10 bits.
452
00:44:22,010 --> 00:44:28,010
And for chlorophyll we have used satellites SeaWiFS7/OrbView
453
00:44:28,010 --> 00:44:34,310
with 8 bands, 6 visible and 2 infrared, with a Swath of 2800 km,
454
00:44:34,310 --> 00:44:40,610
with a high repeatability, with a spatial resolution of 1.1 km and a radial resolution of 10 bits.
455
00:44:41,590 --> 00:44:47,610
The thesis had lots of graphs that I won't bore you with.
456
00:44:47,610 --> 00:44:53,370
More or less we see the variation of temperatures by sampling area, so it is clear
457
00:44:53,370 --> 00:45:00,770
than all the others, the Canary Islands is the bottom one, we hardly get 25 degrees.
458
00:45:00,970 --> 00:45:08,260
In the chlorophyll you can see the contribution of chlorophyll, which does not indicate much either.
459
00:45:08,260 --> 00:45:14,260
These are the monthly averages for both temperature and chlorophyll,
460
00:45:14,260 --> 00:45:17,860
from 1999 to 2007.
461
00:45:19,860 --> 00:45:26,260
We have already raised all the issues that we raised with the preceding studies,
462
00:45:26,260 --> 00:45:34,760
we identified the species, the Saccostrea cucullata, the one above is also a vivar.
463
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:40,360
The specimens in the laboratory correspond to the Harpa rosea.
464
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:48,360
As for meteo-oceanography, we knew from previous studies,
465
00:45:48,360 --> 00:45:54,360
that they first had to have the necessary temperature to be able to lay their clutches
466
00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:56,960
was 24 degrees Celsius.
467
00:45:56,960 --> 00:46:01,960
The results we had obtained were, for the warm months, 20.77 degrees,
468
00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:07,960
the maximum temperature in the Canary Islands, 23 at the Banc d' Arguin
469
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:11,360
and 24 or more than 24 in the other zones.
470
00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:15,460
If we applied the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the distribution was normal,
471
00:46:15,460 --> 00:46:18,460
because the values were less than or equal to 1.5.
472
00:46:18,460 --> 00:46:23,460
And the U-Mann-Whitney test indicated that Senegal and Cape Verde have equal means.
473
00:46:23,460 --> 00:46:25,460
This is for temperature.
474
00:46:25,460 --> 00:46:35,660
For chlorophyll, if there was adequate primary production, then it would influence
475
00:46:35,660 --> 00:46:38,160
the laying period and larval development.
476
00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:44,760
The results for the warm months, in the Canary Islands we had no more than 0.17 mg/m3,
477
00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:49,760
while in Banc d' Arguin it was 6.74 and in Senegal 7.97.
478
00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:52,760
Other values were widely dispersed.
479
00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:56,760
Applying the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test gave us less than or equal to 1.5;
480
00:46:56,760 --> 00:47:01,820
and with the U-Mann-Whitney test Senegal and the Banc d' Arguin had equal means,
481
00:47:01,820 --> 00:47:04,820
the same as Guinea and Cape Verde.
482
00:47:04,820 --> 00:47:11,810
The ocean currents, those of us here know what the ocean currents are
483
00:47:11,810 --> 00:47:19,810
we have in the Canary Islands, both in the northern winter and in the southern summer.
484
00:47:20,310 --> 00:47:27,810
We came to the conclusions, what we called the Saccostrea cucullatawas the Saccostrea cucullata;
485
00:47:27,810 --> 00:47:31,510
what we called Harpa rosea was the Harpa Rosea.
486
00:47:31,510 --> 00:47:36,910
As for the palaeoclimatic conclusions, we saw that the temperature in the Canary Islands,
487
00:47:36,910 --> 00:47:44,930
with everything we had done, that we had collected data from 1985 to 2009,
488
00:47:44,930 --> 00:47:51,730
the average was 20.44, while at the stations it was 20.77,
489
00:47:51,730 --> 00:47:54,080
so there were very few variations.
490
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:59,880
The areas where the Harpa rosea was alive, as the average was 21.68 at the Banc d' Arguin,
491
00:47:59,880 --> 00:48:03,680
but other conditions did allow life to develop;
492
00:48:03,680 --> 00:48:06,180
and 27.23 in Guinea.
493
00:48:06,180 --> 00:48:12,180
The average for the warm seasons was 22.59 at Banc d'Arguin and 27.43 in Guinea.
494
00:48:12,180 --> 00:48:21,020
There was a difference of 1.82 to 6.66 for isotopic status 5.5,
495
00:48:21,020 --> 00:48:26,020
which modified and increased the accuracy of the data obtained so far
496
00:48:26,020 --> 00:48:30,520
we had based on the Strombus bubonius Mediterranean fossil.
497
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:35,820
Regarding the areas of the Saccostrea cucullata,live specimens of Saccostrea cucullata
498
00:48:35,820 --> 00:48:41,120
have been found in a much more limited area, limited only to the Gulf of Guinea.
499
00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:48,620
The average temperature was 22.86 in Namibe and 27.23 in Guinea
500
00:48:48,620 --> 00:48:54,320
The average in warm seasons was 23.97 and 27.43.
501
00:48:54,320 --> 00:49:02,120
First time these temperatures have been deduced for the interglacial of the marine idiotopic period 11.3,
502
00:49:02,120 --> 00:49:08,120
which was only known to have been found in Alaskan deposits of this age,
503
00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:13,120
some extralimital species appear from there.
504
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:23,020
About sea level, we know that in the past they were related to geological activity
505
00:49:23,020 --> 00:49:24,320
of the deposits.
506
00:49:24,320 --> 00:49:30,670
It has been shown that the temperature was higher, as it implies a new volume of ice
507
00:49:30,670 --> 00:49:33,970
than today and a higher sea level.
508
00:49:33,970 --> 00:49:39,330
As for the marine isotopic period 11.3, which is the period where the Saccostrea cucullata,
509
00:49:39,330 --> 00:49:44,840
as in the Atlantic of the Canary Islands, it exceeded the current one with an annual change
510
00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:49,340
which were at least 2.42 ºC to 3.53 ºC the highest,
511
00:49:49,340 --> 00:49:53,340
and at most 6.66 ºC to 6.79 ºC were the highest.
512
00:49:53,340 --> 00:49:58,040
This implied the certainty of a much smaller volume of ice
513
00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:00,640
and a higher sea level than at present.
514
00:50:00,640 --> 00:50:06,740
There were about 7 metres that were due to the melting of the arctic ice, and more than 10 metres
515
00:50:06,740 --> 00:50:17,570
that would be needed to exceed the height of 10 metres plus the melting of Antarctic ice.
516
00:50:17,570 --> 00:50:24,570
This confirmation through the paleoindicator is new in relation to what has been previously published.
517
00:50:24,570 --> 00:50:32,370
In terms of isotopic status 5.5, the Atlantic of the Canary Islands exceeds the present one with a variation
518
00:50:32,370 --> 00:50:37,670
of at least 1.24°C to 1.82°C in relation to the highest;
519
00:50:37,670 --> 00:50:41,670
and at most from 6.66 ºC to 6.79 ºC.
520
00:50:41,670 --> 00:50:43,670
And as for sea elevation,
521
00:50:43,670 --> 00:50:49,670
if we consider the minima, the sea elevation would correspond to about 7.26 metres,
522
00:50:49,670 --> 00:50:55,270
which is more or less similar to what we had in the marine isotopic state 11.3.
523
00:50:55,270 --> 00:50:59,970
The maximums of the minimums would be 6.42 metres.
524
00:50:59,970 --> 00:51:06,970
And the maxima would not be possible to differentiate between the two isotopic states at sea levels,
525
00:51:06,970 --> 00:51:14,970
that at least 11.3 would be 6 metres above the current one.
526
00:51:15,470 --> 00:51:22,970
The chlorophyll condition is the same, with the concentrations it is all the same.
527
00:51:22,970 --> 00:51:31,570
As for the Canarian presence of these species that we have used as palaeoindicators,
528
00:51:31,570 --> 00:51:35,970
related to their requirements for reproduction and larval dispersal.
529
00:51:35,970 --> 00:51:40,060
That is clear, for someone to arrive they have to have a reproduction.
530
00:51:40,060 --> 00:51:44,460
and a reproduction of the larvae to bring them here.
531
00:51:44,460 --> 00:51:50,460
The species of Saccostrea cucullata that were considered here, were only the African ones,
532
00:51:50,460 --> 00:51:51,910
which is very poorly studied.
533
00:51:51,910 --> 00:52:01,260
For a point of reference, we use Morton's studies from 1990,
534
00:52:01,260 --> 00:52:06,260
on Hong Kong mangroves in the Indian Ocean on gonadal development.
535
00:52:06,260 --> 00:52:11,260
The temperature there in September is 33.5°C,
536
00:52:11,260 --> 00:52:17,260
they mature in October and lay in May and the temperature is approximately 24.5 ºC.
537
00:52:17,260 --> 00:52:19,590
Here we hardly get it.
538
00:52:19,590 --> 00:52:23,190
When the Harpa rosea is much less studied,
539
00:52:23,190 --> 00:52:27,490
their reproduction is coupled to the times when primary reproduction is greatest,
540
00:52:27,490 --> 00:52:31,990
which usually coincides with higher solar irradiance in temperate waters;
541
00:52:31,990 --> 00:52:36,490
a rise in temperature and an increased presence of nutrients in the water,
542
00:52:36,490 --> 00:52:41,370
by terrestrial input, rainfall, upwelling and so on.
543
00:52:41,370 --> 00:52:47,370
In terms of climate anticipation, taking into account what we have seen at the beginning,
544
00:52:47,370 --> 00:52:55,270
the paleotemperature conclusions, we have handled 1,056,186 data,
545
00:52:55,270 --> 00:53:00,770
confirm what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says.
546
00:53:00,770 --> 00:53:06,770
There is a continuous rise in our temperatures, which is similar to what happened in the past
547
00:53:06,770 --> 00:53:08,770
in both periods.
548
00:53:08,770 --> 00:53:10,770
What will be the effects?
549
00:53:10,770 --> 00:53:14,270
Rising temperatures, rising sea levels,
550
00:53:14,270 --> 00:53:17,270
decrease in sea ice cover,
551
00:53:17,270 --> 00:53:21,970
there will be changes in salinity, waves and ocean circulation.
552
00:53:21,970 --> 00:53:29,470
There will be a feedback on global climate and there will be impacts on biological production.
553
00:53:29,470 --> 00:53:38,350
So if El Niño-related warming increases in frequency,
554
00:53:38,350 --> 00:53:42,420
plankton biomass and larval abundance will decline.
555
00:53:42,420 --> 00:53:46,420
Coastal and marine ecosystems will be affected.
556
00:53:46,420 --> 00:53:51,420
According to the projections of the Fourth Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
557
00:53:51,420 --> 00:53:59,120
the temperature increase will be 0.1°C per decade, even reaching 0.2°C.
558
00:53:59,120 --> 00:54:05,950
So it may be that the Harpa rosea and other species of the same period
559
00:54:05,950 --> 00:54:09,950
can populate the Canary Islands.
560
00:54:09,950 --> 00:54:15,350
In contrast, theSaccostrea cucullatacarries a geological path of southward displacement,
561
00:54:15,350 --> 00:54:17,080
since the Lower Pleistocene.
562
00:54:17,080 --> 00:54:21,780
It is leaving Morocco, leaving the Mediterranean and settling in the Canary Islands,
563
00:54:21,780 --> 00:54:26,800
leaves the Canaries and leaves Cape Verde.
564
00:54:26,800 --> 00:54:33,650
This non-return during this marine isotopic period of the Saccostrea
565
00:54:33,650 --> 00:54:37,880
to the Canary Islands and Cape Verde, means that it is going in a different direction.
566
00:54:37,880 --> 00:54:42,380
Maybe it's going to South Africa, who knows.
567
00:54:42,380 --> 00:54:49,380
There you have more or less what can happen, where the fossils are and where they live.
568
00:54:49,380 --> 00:54:55,380
Allow me that whoever believes that everything is written in this world, then Cicero already,
569
00:54:55,380 --> 00:55:02,080
on the nature of the gods said "it is easier for me to find arguments
570
00:55:02,080 --> 00:55:06,880
to prove that something is false you have to prove that something is true".
571
00:55:06,880 --> 00:55:08,880
And Cicero already said that.
572
00:55:08,880 --> 00:55:16,280
Then, if any of us have read Daniel Defoe in Robinson Crusoe,
573
00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:19,510
I have extracted a few sentences that say:
574
00:55:19,510 --> 00:55:25,510
"I have often been able to observe how incongruous and irrational the human nature is...
575
00:55:25,510 --> 00:55:28,510
when confronted with the reason that should guide it...
576
00:55:28,510 --> 00:55:34,810
Namely, that man is not ashamed of his deeds, for which, in righteousness,
577
00:55:34,810 --> 00:55:42,910
will be regarded as a fool, but to turn back, which would earn them the reputation of prudent men".
578
00:55:42,910 --> 00:55:46,600
Daniel Defoe said this in Robinson Crusoe.
579
00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:53,770
By this I mean, I'm going to make a hymn to palaeontology, everything passes, everything comes back,
580
00:55:53,770 --> 00:55:55,170
life is cyclical.
581
00:55:55,170 --> 00:55:58,660
Climate change exists and will exist.
582
00:55:58,660 --> 00:56:02,860
Another point is what is the human impact.
583
00:56:02,860 --> 00:56:08,800
This is an individual action, no matter what governments say.
584
00:56:08,800 --> 00:56:15,800
Each of us has to think globally, but act locally.
585
00:56:15,800 --> 00:56:18,500
Thank you very much and I hope I have not bored you.
586
00:56:29,200 --> 00:56:37,200
You don't want any questions, do you? OK, yes.
587
00:56:37,200 --> 00:56:47,600
In early September we were following a small hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean,
588
00:56:47,600 --> 00:56:55,600
approached the Canary Islands, then went towards the Azores; it stayed 17 days a full-fledged hurricane.
589
00:56:55,600 --> 00:57:04,800
It is one of the longest in history, Nadine was its name.
590
00:57:04,800 --> 00:57:12,800
Now this Sandy is coming to New York.
591
00:57:12,800 --> 00:57:18,900
Things that apparently have to do with change.
592
00:57:18,900 --> 00:57:31,900
When climate change is mentioned and climate change emissions are almost exclusively talked about
593
00:57:31,900 --> 00:57:39,900
emissions of greenhouse gases, it is often not taken into account that the atmosphere is a very fast-moving medium.
594
00:57:39,900 --> 00:57:46,900
Y La Tierra tiene muchísimos mecanismos de feedback.
595
00:57:46,900 --> 00:57:55,400
And these feedback mechanisms, more rain in one place, less in another.
596
00:57:55,400 --> 00:58:03,400
The problem, which is sometimes not sufficiently cited in my opinion, is what about the sea?
597
00:58:03,400 --> 00:58:06,520
For example with the thermohaline current.
598
00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:10,920
When we talk about winters being cold, there used to be winters or springs,
599
00:58:10,920 --> 00:58:16,920
the responsibility lies more with the thermohaline current than with the atmosphere.
600
00:58:16,920 --> 00:58:23,920
Thanks are also due here to the palaeontologists,
601
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:31,920
The proxies will tell us what happens, because thermohaline currents are not always like this.
602
00:58:31,920 --> 00:58:37,420
And at different times it changes and will change.
603
00:58:37,420 --> 00:58:46,420
In the thesis I have some transparency of the thermohaline current, but not here.
604
00:58:46,420 --> 00:58:58,420
What we are facing is not only the air, but the sea as well.
605
00:58:58,420 --> 00:59:06,420
And in this sense, I believe that one can never fail to mention this aspect when talking about climate change.
606
00:59:06,420 --> 00:59:15,420
One important issue is to thank palaeontology, which unfortunately
607
00:59:15,420 --> 00:59:23,420
during the 50s, 60s, after Darwin it seemed that science made them stamp collectivists;
608
00:59:23,420 --> 00:59:30,420
thanks to all this, they have made a spectacular comeback on the scene.
609
00:59:30,420 --> 00:59:37,420
Moreover, they are also the ones that provide us with data on what the past was like
610
00:59:37,420 --> 00:59:47,420
so the rest of us scientists have to be grateful for this.
611
00:59:47,420 --> 00:59:54,420
I totally agree with you, but totally.
612
00:59:54,420 --> 01:00:00,420
Yes, I've seen you take a lot of notes.
613
01:00:00,420 --> 01:00:04,420
I have taken notes, but because I like it.
614
01:00:04,420 --> 01:00:12,120
Of these two interglacial episodes you mention, one of 400,000 years and the other of 128,000 years;
615
01:00:18,120 --> 01:00:25,120
Note that at the beginning of the conference you went a bit overboard on the causes
616
01:00:25,120 --> 01:00:31,120
of climate and temperature changes.
617
01:00:31,120 --> 01:00:39,120
From your experience, what would you associate these two major changes with?
618
01:00:39,120 --> 01:00:42,930
Would you associate them with Milankovitch cycles?
619
01:00:42,930 --> 01:00:46,120
No.
620
01:00:46,120 --> 01:00:51,420
What I had to learn about in order to write my thesis,
621
01:00:51,420 --> 01:00:56,920
Milankovitch's theories, well, we did a study that I haven't told you about here,
622
01:00:56,920 --> 01:01:02,520
because we studied exactly the two marine isotopic periods.
623
01:01:02,520 --> 01:01:10,660
The thesis is in the library, you can read it on 1.5 and 1.3.
624
01:01:10,660 --> 01:01:16,460
There are as many detractors as there are defenders of the Milankovitch Theory.
625
01:01:16,460 --> 01:01:23,560
Some say that orbital changes may play a role,
626
01:01:23,560 --> 01:01:29,280
and others who say no, not at all.
627
01:01:29,280 --> 01:01:36,280
It may have an impact, but not to the extent that it causes so much climate change.
628
01:01:36,280 --> 01:01:44,480
Climate change cannot be attributed to one thing, it is an accumulation of things.
629
01:01:44,480 --> 01:01:52,180
I read about it in the newspaper and did not discuss it with anyone in my team
630
01:01:52,180 --> 01:02:00,880
that when the tsunami hit Japan, the Earth's axis shifted by 10 centimetres.
631
01:02:00,880 --> 01:02:05,040
Logically, nobody talks about that any more.
632
01:02:05,040 --> 01:02:12,040
Perhaps this displacement may have played a role in these extreme temperature changes.
633
01:02:12,040 --> 01:02:20,040
Well, I'm sure it does.
634
01:02:20,040 --> 01:02:27,640
It is obviously a set of things.
635
01:02:27,640 --> 01:02:33,400
We cannot say that only the temperature has an influence.
636
01:02:33,400 --> 01:02:39,200
Well, no, it is influenced by temperature and many other things.
637
01:02:39,200 --> 01:02:49,200
Why is it called Greenland? Because in its original language, they meant green land.
638
01:02:49,200 --> 01:02:57,200
It was a name like that because they wanted it or it was because it was not covered with ice.
639
01:02:57,200 --> 01:03:03,800
Logically, there are lots of causes that lead to that.
640
01:03:03,800 --> 01:03:10,800
I don't think we as human beings are going to provoke disaster any more.
641
01:03:10,800 --> 01:03:19,600
What we are seeing, because of the impact of human beings, is that there are billions of us,
642
01:03:19,600 --> 01:03:26,200
interglacial periods are shortening,
643
01:03:26,200 --> 01:03:31,080
because we see it in curves like the ones we saw before.
644
01:03:31,080 --> 01:03:41,880
I think so, because at the end of the day, we are a parasite on Planet Earth.
645
01:03:41,880 --> 01:03:48,680
There is a carrying capacity for everything, and then there are many of us
646
01:03:48,680 --> 01:03:50,680
for this planet to endure.
647
01:03:50,680 --> 01:03:58,680
And on top of that we have plundered what we had, because wherever we go we plunder it.
648
01:03:58,680 --> 01:04:09,680
That's why I say think globally and act locally.
649
01:04:09,680 --> 01:04:16,680
I was mainly referring to, for example, the seismicity of the Earth changing every 100,000 years,
650
01:04:16,680 --> 01:04:24,880
as one is 400,000 and the other 100,000, it will have to do with the eccentricity of the Earth.
651
01:04:24,880 --> 01:04:31,080
As the rotational movement is every 20,000 years, let's see if you have studied this relationship.
652
01:04:31,080 --> 01:04:32,480
No.
653
01:04:32,480 --> 01:04:37,480
What the spin is, the precession yes.
654
01:04:37,480 --> 01:04:44,530
Well, that hasn't occurred to me, that could be the subject of a publication before you retire.
655
01:04:44,530 --> 01:04:50,230
In fact I have been told that it is global.
656
01:04:50,230 --> 01:04:56,030
It's in Bermuda, for example, which is not just here.
657
01:04:56,030 --> 01:05:02,130
This is a problem that we cannot address because it belongs to astronomers and it is already
658
01:05:02,130 --> 01:05:07,630
studied and there are people who know what it is like.
659
01:05:07,630 --> 01:05:14,630
We cannot undertake such studies, we do not have the capacity.
660
01:05:14,630 --> 01:05:22,030
And finally, the beautiful thing that you are studying are the interglacials, when you already
661
01:05:22,030 --> 01:05:29,530
climate change, but a great future there is for people who dive, who have marine robot
662
01:05:29,530 --> 01:05:36,530
is to think about the glacial deposits that have been there, all the ones that are underwater,
663
01:05:36,530 --> 01:05:44,530
that are unstudied at 20, 100, 200 metres; and to know easily what interglacials are,
664
01:05:44,530 --> 01:05:50,530
but the unstudied and untouched underwater reservoirs would be missing.
665
01:05:50,530 --> 01:05:54,530
Count me out.
666
01:05:54,530 --> 01:05:59,710
The Iron Age, the Middle Ages...
667
01:05:59,710 --> 01:06:07,710
I wanted to say one thing; there was a standstill in the currents.
668
01:06:07,710 --> 01:06:15,010
5 million years ago and is demonstrated by the completely warm fauna.
669
01:06:15,010 --> 01:06:21,810
Associated with that are huge deposits,
670
01:06:21,810 --> 01:06:29,410
that we have linked to hurricanes and heavy rains, such as the Las Palmas reservoirs
671
01:06:29,410 --> 01:06:32,410
and others like it on Fuerteventura.
672
01:06:32,410 --> 01:06:40,010
In a way, it is a novelty and we also relate to it
673
01:06:40,010 --> 01:06:47,010
about 5 months before Hurricane Nadine hit.
674
01:06:47,010 --> 01:06:55,510
I said that this has happened here before, about 5 million years ago.
675
01:06:55,510 --> 01:07:03,710
from the beginning of the Pleistocene to the end of the Miocene, which is when Panama closes.
676
01:07:03,710 --> 01:07:08,710
When we talk about change not affecting us yet,
677
01:07:08,710 --> 01:07:16,710
100-odd people have died in New York from Nile fever, a bug that has jumped a barrier.
678
01:07:16,710 --> 01:07:24,710
Well, like everything else, and floods, but like everything else.
679
01:07:24,710 --> 01:07:30,760
The problem with flooding is that local councils give licences
680
01:07:30,760 --> 01:07:36,760
to build in the middle of a ravine, in the middle of a watercourse, and water
681
01:07:36,760 --> 01:07:42,760
The natural course of events continues and we shake our heads. But no.
682
01:07:42,760 --> 01:07:49,760
You are talking about a certain homogeneity in the North Atlantic, in the Atlantic in general,
683
01:07:49,760 --> 01:07:52,220
which may be the final result.
684
01:07:52,220 --> 01:07:57,420
Recent studies say that the Atlantic does not function equally in all areas.
685
01:07:57,420 --> 01:08:04,420
But what we were looking for was symmetry and in those isotopic periods.
686
01:08:04,420 --> 01:08:12,920
Related studies to show what was going on and to have an element of comparison
687
01:08:12,920 --> 01:08:20,920
with other sites or other studies on the other side of the Atlantic, in case there was symmetry.
688
01:08:20,920 --> 01:08:26,060
Finding the entire thermohaline current and the incidence of all currents.ç
689
01:08:26,060 --> 01:08:34,060
Today, articles have come out saying that the Canaries and Bermuda do not work in the same way,
690
01:08:34,060 --> 01:08:40,560
what conditions have to change for them to work the same. It may be related to circulation.
691
01:08:40,560 --> 01:08:48,560
Probably. As Joaquín says, the thermohaline circulation,
692
01:08:48,560 --> 01:08:52,710
I have a transparency with all circulation, but not here;
693
01:08:52,710 --> 01:08:57,080
It may happen that due to the rise in temperature the situation changes,
694
01:08:57,080 --> 01:09:03,080
and then stop again, as my director said.
695
01:09:03,080 --> 01:09:11,080
The temperature of the Atlantic, which is not homogeneous and is not homogeneous between layers.
696
01:09:11,080 --> 01:09:19,080
The big temperature increase is in the higher, shallower layers.
697
01:09:19,080 --> 01:09:26,080
The current that resembles the Canary Current, not the thermohaline.
698
01:09:26,080 --> 01:09:29,860
I have my doubts about that, but OK.
699
01:09:29,860 --> 01:09:37,860
I say that today, in the Canary Islands, the surface temperature is increasing,
700
01:09:37,860 --> 01:09:44,860
and initially in the first 700 metres, but on the west side this is not happening.
701
01:09:44,860 --> 01:09:52,360
It is increasing at the surface, but not in the thermohaline, so there are some differences,
702
01:09:52,360 --> 01:09:57,960
that it is not yet known which way they will go.
703
01:09:57,960 --> 01:10:05,960
Even historical temperature records are being called into question with respect to
704
01:10:05,960 --> 01:10:12,960
the last 10 years, when the programme has been in place,
705
01:10:12,960 --> 01:10:19,960
there is no evidence that the records are sufficiently valid.
706
01:10:19,960 --> 01:10:22,060
This can also happen.
707
01:10:22,060 --> 01:10:29,660
But I tell you, we have compared with the literature of the same isotopic periods,
708
01:10:29,660 --> 01:10:34,660
I have seen millions of articles.
709
01:10:34,660 --> 01:10:41,160
But well, that's all there is to it, and my thesis is not an end.
710
01:10:41,160 --> 01:10:43,160
My thesis is a start.
711
01:10:43,160 --> 01:10:44,660
It is to open.
712
01:10:44,660 --> 01:10:53,660
What I find most interesting is, connecting the palaeontological findings
713
01:10:53,660 --> 01:10:57,900
with the current situation, which is what shocks me.
714
01:10:57,900 --> 01:11:05,200
Because nowadays doubts are being established, because in the last 20 years
715
01:11:05,200 --> 01:11:13,400
temperature increases are significantly lower than those predicted 50 years ago,
716
01:11:13,400 --> 01:11:20,400
if indeed the palaeontological results incline us to believe
717
01:11:20,400 --> 01:11:27,300
that this is going to have a continuous trend, I don't know if it will be exponential, linear or how,
718
01:11:27,300 --> 01:11:30,400
results depend on the models,
719
01:11:30,400 --> 01:11:39,800
The question is how to connect palaeontological results with current data.
720
01:11:39,800 --> 01:11:43,300
In principle, this is what my thesis is about.
721
01:11:43,300 --> 01:11:48,800
But I say again, my thesis does not close a field of research.
722
01:11:48,800 --> 01:11:53,150
My thesis is an opening, this is what it is.
723
01:11:53,150 --> 01:11:57,550
Whoever wants to take the baton and carry on.
724
01:11:57,550 --> 01:12:03,240
This means that it is a question of precision in language.
725
01:12:03,240 --> 01:12:11,240
We have some fossils that show that there was a temperature here,
726
01:12:11,240 --> 01:12:19,640
it is not logical to think that the fossil has changed from, I was cold and now I am hot,
727
01:12:19,640 --> 01:12:22,840
rather, it is the environmental circumstances that have changed.
728
01:12:22,840 --> 01:12:28,840
The presence of fossils from the Gulf of Guinea and the Caribbean,
729
01:12:28,840 --> 01:12:32,370
because some still live today in the Gulf of Guinea and the Caribbean,
730
01:12:32,370 --> 01:12:35,470
for example the Siderastrea radians, that it is a coral.
731
01:12:35,470 --> 01:12:42,470
Fossils are found here in Las Palmas and elsewhere in the archipelago.
732
01:12:42,470 --> 01:12:55,470
The presence of such fauna indicates that the temperature here was higher,
733
01:12:55,470 --> 01:13:05,910
which is in all likelihood related and as the most possible explanation we now see,
734
01:13:05,910 --> 01:13:10,910
with a standstill of the Canary current.
735
01:13:10,910 --> 01:13:16,650
If not total paralysis, at least the Canary current should turn around further upstream,
736
01:13:16,650 --> 01:13:22,150
further north of Portugal, as some of this fauna has entered the Mediterranean.
737
01:13:22,150 --> 01:13:28,150
It is what is called Senegalese fauna there, and previously there was fauna that came in
738
01:13:28,150 --> 01:13:34,550
of the Arctic, with some fossils as well, which are the Cyprina islandica and the Hyalinea balthica,
739
01:13:34,550 --> 01:13:41,550
which is what the Italians called ospiti nordici, guests from the north.
740
01:13:41,550 --> 01:13:43,950
And then comes the Senegalese fauna.
741
01:13:43,950 --> 01:13:54,950
In other words, there are very clear changes at the entrance to the Mediterranean.
742
01:13:54,950 --> 01:14:00,250
And we who are the southern ramp of this gateway to the Mediterranean,
743
01:14:00,250 --> 01:14:03,120
For here are these testimonies.
744
01:14:03,120 --> 01:14:08,620
This most likely indicates a stalling of the Canary Current.
745
01:14:08,620 --> 01:14:14,820
Now the relationship between the Canary current and depth, I have no idea.
746
01:14:14,820 --> 01:14:18,860
That is oceanographer stuff.
747
01:14:18,860 --> 01:14:24,360
You are talking about the first 700 metres of water,
748
01:14:24,360 --> 01:14:31,360
we are talking about this body of water that you are identifying as surface water,
749
01:14:31,360 --> 01:14:36,970
is mainly generated by ventilation processes in the winter.
750
01:14:36,970 --> 01:14:43,170
That's really what characterises the temperature it's going to have
751
01:14:43,170 --> 01:14:45,440
and the salinity it will have.
752
01:14:45,440 --> 01:14:51,440
We only talk about the Sea Surface Temperature,
753
01:14:51,440 --> 01:14:58,040
i.e. the surface temperature which is the one captured from satellites.
754
01:14:58,040 --> 01:15:03,540
In the Gulf of Guinea is the interesting part of this fauna, which we have seen here,
755
01:15:03,540 --> 01:15:08,910
is that they are very shallow, i.e. they do not occur deeper than 10 metres.
756
01:15:08,910 --> 01:15:10,910
They really are littoral.
757
01:15:10,910 --> 01:15:17,010
However, this ratio of satellite temperatures,
758
01:15:17,010 --> 01:15:21,010
is the only one possible at the moment.
759
01:15:21,010 --> 01:15:30,210
When you go on expeditions to Africa and go to every place with a thermometer,
760
01:15:30,210 --> 01:15:37,150
I have put it in some places and the water is at 30, 32 ºC.
761
01:15:39,150 --> 01:15:41,240
But that is a different job.
762
01:15:41,240 --> 01:15:50,040
Teams must be moved to the sites, the opportunity to take advantage of the information
763
01:15:50,040 --> 01:15:56,940
of satellite surface temperatures to apply to this.
764
01:15:56,940 --> 01:16:01,660
That the application is not correct, it could be.
765
01:16:02,660 --> 01:16:06,660
for the moment we have used a weapon.
766
01:16:06,660 --> 01:16:13,160
I was interested to know, because from the palaeontological findings
767
01:16:13,160 --> 01:16:18,330
There is a certain homogeneity between the two coasts,
768
01:16:18,330 --> 01:16:26,630
and I have been working on the comparison of the two coasts for some time now.
769
01:16:26,630 --> 01:16:32,080
Homogeneity is only in height above sea level deposits,
770
01:16:32,080 --> 01:16:33,510
not in fauna.
771
01:16:35,210 --> 01:16:41,350
That is, the sea was 20 metres higher in Bermuda and 20 metres higher in the Canaries.
772
01:16:41,350 --> 01:16:49,850
Now, what the sea was like in Bermuda will be told by the study of Bermuda's fauna
773
01:16:49,850 --> 01:16:51,530
and the relationships they had.
774
01:16:51,530 --> 01:16:57,230
And yes there is fauna in common, but we have to go further back than the Mio-Pliocene.
775
01:16:57,230 --> 01:17:03,350
There was common ground not only with Bermuda, but with the entire Caribbean and the Panama area,
776
01:17:03,350 --> 01:17:09,850
prior to the closure, there was theoretically a mass of surface water, well La Niña,
777
01:17:09,850 --> 01:17:11,850
that crossed the entire Pacific.
778
01:17:11,850 --> 01:17:17,850
It wet those coasts and possibly reached the Canary Islands, we don't know, there are so many models.
779
01:17:17,850 --> 01:17:23,850
What is known is that there is fossil fauna in the Canary Islands that you find in Panama
780
01:17:23,850 --> 01:17:25,200
and in the Caribbean.
781
01:17:27,040 --> 01:17:30,140
But of course, you have to have the vision of the past.
782
01:17:30,140 --> 01:17:35,640
That is, he talks about 4 million years ago and I talk about 420,000 years ago.
783
01:17:35,640 --> 01:17:43,730
The same as we will be more or less, a situation of knowing
784
01:17:43,730 --> 01:17:53,150
that a Roman 2,000 years, the Middle Ages 1,100 years, that the Assyrians...
785
01:17:53,150 --> 01:17:59,650
The same applies to all periods for which there are deposits.
786
01:17:59,650 --> 01:18:05,650
It is not only the geographical situation, but also the time frame.
787
01:18:05,650 --> 01:18:12,150
I think the problem is mainly conceptual, because when we talk about climate change,
788
01:18:12,150 --> 01:18:18,650
one sees for example what we saw before, 400,000 years with 4 glacial and 4 interglacial periods,
789
01:18:18,650 --> 01:18:24,650
and takes up one and a half metres; the history of the Earth is 35 kilometres that way.
790
01:18:24,650 --> 01:18:29,350
So we see that it has always had this kind of oscillations.
791
01:18:29,350 --> 01:18:34,000
In the present case, I think the difference between a glacial and an interglacial period,
792
01:18:34,000 --> 01:18:37,930
is to now have 3 kilometres of ice on your neck or not to have them at all.
793
01:18:37,930 --> 01:18:44,930
Perhaps, from my point of view, that we are at the end of what would be that curve,
794
01:18:44,930 --> 01:18:52,230
because for me climate change is a more severe thing, a meteorite for example.
795
01:18:52,230 --> 01:18:58,230
The other day I was watching on television traps in Siberia that generated events
796
01:18:58,230 --> 01:19:01,840
volcanological events that lasted hundreds of years and changed the climate.
797
01:19:01,840 --> 01:19:07,840
When we talk about climate change, I think it is somewhat pretentious on the part of human beings,
798
01:19:07,840 --> 01:19:13,340
because they are small changes, "tropicalisations" is the term I like to use.
799
01:19:13,340 --> 01:19:20,340
because I assume climate change would be something much more beastly.
800
01:19:22,340 --> 01:19:28,340
For the last 20 million years the climate has been more or less like this.
801
01:19:28,340 --> 01:19:34,340
And two million years ago.
802
01:19:34,340 --> 01:19:38,340
And 400,000 years ago.
803
01:19:38,340 --> 01:19:44,340
And it has gone higher and higher, so it may now go even higher.
804
01:19:44,340 --> 01:19:48,770
The previous ones were much shorter.
805
01:19:48,770 --> 01:19:55,270
It looks as if a star has passed around the Earth and started to fly around a bit.
806
01:19:55,270 --> 01:20:06,060
Because I'm telling you, it's like that, like that and then the upheavals again, but lower than the others.
807
01:20:06,060 --> 01:20:13,060
Those are interglacial-glacial oscillations, but now we have the end point of the graph,
808
01:20:13,060 --> 01:20:19,060
so conditions are changing minimally, by 1 degree every 20 years.
809
01:20:19,060 --> 01:20:28,260
Personally I think that climate change, 20,000 years ago the sea level was rising.
810
01:20:28,260 --> 01:20:35,760
I think political climate change is a bit like the ant versus the elephant.
811
01:20:35,760 --> 01:20:38,760
There is no stopping climate change.
812
01:20:38,760 --> 01:20:44,760
Wouldn't it be more accurate to speak of tropicalisation rather than climate change?
813
01:20:44,760 --> 01:20:50,760
That perhaps it refers to other kinds of events occurring at different spatio-temporal scales.
814
01:20:50,760 --> 01:20:58,760
Tropizalisation here in the Canary Islands, but in Sweden I don't know.
815
01:21:01,760 --> 01:21:07,760
That is why the Canary Islands are interesting, because they are
816
01:21:07,760 --> 01:21:10,660
halfway between the equator and the pole.
817
01:21:10,660 --> 01:21:13,770
It is always cold at the pole, more or less, but always cold
818
01:21:13,770 --> 01:21:15,770
and it is always hot at the equator.
819
01:21:15,770 --> 01:21:21,770
But the Canary Islands where climate changes are recorded,
820
01:21:21,770 --> 01:21:27,770
fortunately, they are trapped by lava flows that can be dated.
821
01:21:28,670 --> 01:21:31,770
This happens in few places on Earth.
822
01:21:34,370 --> 01:21:38,550
A very quick question on the issue of deposits,
823
01:21:38,550 --> 01:21:43,330
In Madeira, did they finally find deposits as well?
824
01:21:43,330 --> 01:21:45,530
Yes.
825
01:21:45,530 --> 01:21:52,230
It was to know if the altitude, if the water temperature changes, if the water temperature changes
826
01:21:52,230 --> 01:21:55,230
They also reached as far as Madeira.
827
01:21:57,230 --> 01:21:59,230
Of course.
828
01:22:01,230 --> 01:22:03,800
Any more questions, any more curiosities?
829
01:22:03,800 --> 01:22:11,800
For those of you who are studying and are working on your thesis or dissertation, I encourage you to go ahead.
830
01:22:11,800 --> 01:22:17,800
and that it's nice to do research, it is like having a little child that you feed.
831
01:22:17,800 --> 01:22:20,330
May I make a clarification?
832
01:22:20,330 --> 01:22:25,060
I encourage them, but I encourage them to do theses in palaeontology.
833
01:22:25,060 --> 01:22:27,060
Well sure of course.
834
01:22:27,060 --> 01:22:34,060
That is clear; you know everything we have in the present comes from what we had in the past,
835
01:22:34,060 --> 01:22:37,170
Everything we do today will have an impact on the future.
836
01:22:37,170 --> 01:22:39,970
Well, thank you very much for your attention.